The last 4 margins of victories New England have managed against Baltimore are 3,3,6 and 3.
Taking out Baltimore's dismantling of New England in the playoffs in 2010, the 5 other encounters between the two, wedged in between that blowout, have produced an average margin of victory of just 3.1 points.
The Patriots have won their past 2 matches against Miami and Houston by 28 and 13. The last time they won 3 in a row by more than 8 (thus covering this line) was weeks 10-12 last season and against 3 teams who all missed the playoffs.
So that's 25 games now since the Patriots have achieved what's being asked of them in tomorrow's match.
Finally, over the last 3 Baltimore seasons (which spans 54 matches) how many games have Baltimore dropped by more than 8? Just 4.
For me, it just seems there's too many numerical factors working against the Patriots where covering this line is concerned.
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