Carlton not likely to play finals in 2013

If your list of teams who are better than Carlton stops at say 5 or 6 then these words might have precious little use for you. If however, like me, you can easily reel off at least 8, perhaps as many as 11 clubs superior than the Blues than we might have something to talk about.

In some markets you can get a price as high as $2.80 about Carlton missing this season’s finals. I can’t help but think this represents seriously good value. To be sure I’m staggered that Carlton are considered sixth favorite in most premiership markets.

It would seem to me that Carlton are receiving so much attention predominantly because of their high profiled coaching change. And sure, if you can swap Brett Ratten for Mick Malthouse, I can understand cause for market optimism. Yet market optimism which elevates Carlton above the likes of Fremantle, Geelong, Richmond, North Melbourne, Essendon and St.Kilda? I’m not so sure. The Blues incidentally went 4-5 against that same group last year.

Carlton finished 10^th last season while their 299 goals figured as their lowest return since 2006 when they won just 3 and half games and when of course the likes of Gold Coast and GWS weren't around to feast on.

Their defense was their shining light, and though they shipped as many points as they had in 4 seasons their premier defenders in Jamieson, Duigan, Henderson and Laidler did miss a combined 49 matches.

And it’s in defense where Carlton will be banking on sharp improvement (enough to elevate them back into the finals) as this has been the staple of Malthouse coached teams. When Malthouse took over the Eagles in 1990 he inherited a team who had won just 7 games and boasted the league’s 4th worst defense. Within a season they had won 16 games, were in a preliminary final and hosted the league’s 3^rd best defense. By 1992 they were premiers.

Malthouse took over an even worse Collingwood team at the end of 1999 which had just collected the wooden spoon. He had this lot in grand finals in 2002 and 2003 with top 4 defenses both years.

In fact the Mathouse's special touch goes back to his days coaching Footscray. He began his coaching career with the Dogs in 1984, a season removed from the Dog's '82 season which produced just 3 wins, a wooden spoon and conceded a truly hideous 3,035 points. By 1985, Malthouse's second season, the Dogs were in a preliminary final and had shipped just 2,000 points which was ranked second in the league.

Carlton will need Malthouse to work his magic quickly as indeed Carlton’s list is ageing fast with their top 4 in the best and fairest featuring Scotland, Betts, Judd and McLean, while Carlton isn't exactly swarming with quality youth.

In attack, we’ve surely arrived at a crossroads where their best tall prospect in Jarrad Waite is concerned. Waite's averaged just 12 games a season over the past 4. When he's not playing, the Blues are usually found scrapping for goal scoring options. Last season, only Betts kicked more than 30 goals casting a huge shadow over an area of the park Champion Data curiously (surely mistakenly) rated as the league’s 3^rd best?

Carlton may well make the finals next season, but it will only be because of a defense which will be returning their best players from injury and beacuse they'll be guided by a coach notorious for preventing the scoreboard ticking over.

Yet in my opinion this is no better than a flip of a coin proposition based on an attack which provides me with little enthusiasm along with increasingly strong competition for spots in the finals.

I’d definitely recommend playing them to miss the finals.