Monday, 14 January 2013

Hewitt Vs Tipsarevic

I'm a little confused where tonight's odds for the Lleyton Hewitt-Janko Tipsarevic match are concerned.

Granted, there's more than a healthy dose of nostalgia and sentimentality associated with Lleyton Hewitt on any court in Australia, though I'm not sure tonight's odds should be considered an almost flip of the coin proposition. Hewitt's odds at most outlets are around the $2 mark. In my opinion, they should be around the $3 mark.

For starters Hewitt ended the year ranked 80 in the world and hasn't won a title in more than 2 and half years. Tipsarevic finished the year ranked 9th and has won 4 titles over the last 15 months. 

Hewitt is in reasonable form having beaten the likes of Del Potro and Raonic in the recent though not particularly acclaimed Kooyong tournament.

However the most pressing numbers for me are in regards to the differences between the two in Grand Slam play in recent times.

Tipsarevic has advanced out of the first round in 8 of the last 9 Grand Slam events he's contested. His play at the Australian open has been just as impressive, advancing beyond the first round in 7 of his 8 visits. 

Hewitt is alternatively on a very different course where major tournament play is concerned. 

He's advanced out of the first round in only 4 of the last 7 Grand Slams he's played at and been dumped out at the first stage in 2 of the last 4 Australian Opens. Gone are the days, like those between 2003 and 2009, where Hewitt advanced out of the first round at Grand Slam level 19 straight times. 

The numbers for me are quite convincing, and though this might be a close contest with Hewitt likely to show the kind of fight he's famous for, tonight's match might be a bridge too far. 

No comments:

Post a Comment