Napoli, inflated odds and the Europa League

For whatever my rankings are worth I have Napoli in a select group with 3 other teams (Chelsea, Atletico Madrid and Tottenham) with the strongest claims of winning this season’s Europa League.

I think their odds should be single figures, specifically around the $9 mark.

Instead, Napoli is as high as $18 and is ranked at some agencies as the tournament’s 8^th favourite. Which I find it quite odd.

I understand Napoli is in a fight to reconnect with the greater public after years of being mired in the lower leagues or Italian football. However I feel confident that the connection has surely been made with Napoli not only performing excellently within Italy’s top league these past few years but also well in European competition too.

And it’s this season where Napoli seem to be playing their strongest, most consistently good football.

Over the last 4 Serie A seasons Napoli have finished no lower than 6^th, while this season they sit in 2^nd position, just 3 points adrift of Juventus with striker Edinson Cavani leading the competition with 18 goals.

Progress through their group in the Europa League was routine, and though they didn’t top it, qualification was assured more than 2 games out. In addition the draw for the next 2 stages of completion seems to have been relatively kind to Napoli with their round of 32 match scheduled against Viktoria Plzen, and a round of 16 match set to be against either BATE Borisov or Fenerbahce.

So why are the odds so generous? After all the bookies aren’t exactly known for getting it wrong very often.

For starters, and as suggested, I don’t think the greater public really regards Napoli as anything but a middle of the road team who’s done pretty well during a suspect period of Italian football. I also think the appearance of the likes of Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham in this tournament are likely to affect the market significantly.

Another strong reason may be due to the presence of the always inflated Russian teams. Specifically the Gus Hiddink coached and very difficult to pronounce Russian outfit FC Anzhi Makhachkala along with the big spending Zenit St.Petersburg. Both feature strongly in most markets yet neither are even leading the Russian Premier League.

Perhaps there’s also a strong element of trepidation regarding Italian teams in this competition, with a Serie A Club having neither hoisted the trophy, or qualified for the final, in 13 years.

Ultimately if my thoughts regarding Napoli’s value have failed to convince you perhaps your next best option would be to go Iberian. Portuguese and Spanish clubs have shared 7 of the last 10 Europa League titles with Atletico Madrid and Benfica the best chances this time around.