The Gay trade is a happy one for all

My first reaction from today’s 3 team trade between Memphis, Toronto and Detroit was that in many ways, all were winners.

Whenever a deal of this magnitude is executed there’s an immediate surge of fuelled emotion most often guided with the intention to condemn, rather than investigate the realities of the move.

I would have though the trade that sent James Harden to Houston on the eve of the season, lambasted in many quarters but proven a roaring success for both teams, would have perhaps at least tempered the way deals of this ilk are so savagely disseminated. They obviously haven’t.

Within moments of this deal I read ridiculous suggestions that Memphis have traded away their opportunity for a Finals run which is not only idiotic, but breezes over the initial statement itself.

To begin with Memphis should be applauded for making a gutsy move which gives their franchise a lot more wriggle room where finances are concerned, adds in a draft pick, but most crucially keeps them competitive and relevant both this season and beyond.

In Rudy Gay, Toronto have landed the bigger sized fish they’ve been chasing for some time while giving up players who have always been treated as the bait in their quest for such a fish.

As for the Pistons, well they say goodnight to their most cumbersome contract as well as the last link to their sort-of glory days of the last decade. In return for losing Tayshaun Prince they’ll welcome in perhaps the cleanest set of hands in the NBA in Jose Calderon.  

Try as I might, I just can’t see where the disgust and haste to call a loser in the trade comes from. In fact, and as I suggested, I think all sides of this trade could head to bed tonight with a smile on their face and a genuine cause for belief that their clubs are in better states than when they began the day.

Finally, I can’t help but feel the key factor in this deal is Ed Davis. In the increasingly numbers driven world of professional sports, Davis shapes as a golden nugget. The former 13^th overall pick was easily Toronto’s best rebounder, perhaps their best defender all round and will represent a huge addition to a Memphis team seriously lacking depth in the realm of big bodies. While the bulk of the noise concerning this trade will pertain to Gay, Davis will be the whisper I’m most keen to hear.

The Year of the Wolverine

The Michigan Wolverines aren’t the first school to have been granted status as the number one team in the nation this season though they’re certainly the most warranted and might well be the last.

While Indiana, Duke and Louisville have climbed to the top of the college basketball perception charts, each soon squandered their seed, losing games which they would have all been expected to win.

And so now it’s Michigan’s turn to take up the torch, an honour they haven’t received in more than 20 years.

Kansas is the only team on the list who could have legitimate gripes about Michigan’s ranking though at the same time they’d understand perfectly that their conference hasn’t yet tested their mettle, while they’ve yet to be pitted against a single top 10 team.

Michigan on the other hand has for the most part cruised through the most challenging conference in college basketball, with their only loss a 3 point affair on the road in Columbus against number 11 Ohio State. In addition their back court star tandem of Trey Bourke and Tim Hardaway Jr shot a combined and deplorable 9 of 28 that night which isn’t likely to replicated in a hurry.

Indeed it is Michigan’s backcourt led by Burke and Hardaway which has propelled Michigan to this standard, leading the nation in offensive efficiency, with the strength of Burke’s numbers comparable only to Michigan’s most famous star, Magic Johnson.

Michigan have shot out of the gates this season and now boast a 19-1 record, with 15 of those victories achieved by double digit margins and with their 5 point defeat of Pittsburgh in November, their smallest.

There’s no doubt the Wolverines will play a major role in post-season play, both within the Big 10 tournament and later on in the National Tournament. 

And it’s where that National Tournament is concerned where there’s some exceptionally good numbers floating around, particularly in Australian markets which don’t exactly place the biggest emphasis on US college sports and whom can sometimes be caught napping when it comes to adjusting their prices.

The Wolverines represent a perfect case.

I can accept that the number 1 seed needn’t necessarily result in market favouritism, however I think Centrebet have got it about right by having Michigan at $5.50 which is a price shared only by Indiana. For reasons that I can only put down to ignorance, Sportsbet (and if you’re quick enough) will give you a price of $13.50, more than 4 points better than Kentucky for instance, who may well fail to qualify for the tournament.

No, the Wolverines haven’t won a National Title since 1989 and yes the number one seed hasn’t been handled particularly well this season, however $13.50 is quite simply a silly price which should be snapped up as quickly as possible. 

Is Dwayne Wade still an All-Star?

I understand NBA All-Star selections generate all sorts of debate. Perhaps that’s one of the by-products of a league whose representative game needs to condense 448 players into 10, split between two teams and rounded out by a handful of back-ups.

Most of the debate regarding selections usually pertains to the reserve players which are nominated by league coaches. The actual starters, usually the biggest names in the game are selected by the people and supposedly for the people. It’s a noble process which delivers more in the way of familiarity rather than rewarding excellence. This season is no exception.

I don’t feel Miami’s Dwyane Wade warrants a starting spot on the East roster, in fact I’m not so sure he would have even deserved a reserve call-up had he not filled a starting role.

Wade’s Miami hasn’t exactly treated the regular season with too much seriousness. For a team slapped with a 63 game handicap and expectations of repeating as Champions they’re instead on target to win a relatively pedestrian 55 matches which may or may not be good enough for the East’s top seed.

Thankfully for Miami, Lebron James has continued to be excel, while Chris Bosh has seen his role change to now playing a lot closer to the ring. Despite not posting phenomenal numbers his performance can be best tracked through win share where’s he’s on target for his best season yet.

Wade on the other hand is having his worst season since his rookie campaign 9 years ago. He’s scoring a lot less, contributing relatively little assists, while less than 30% of Miami’s offence is being run through him- a number he hasn’t slipped below since his debut season.

In addition, he constitutes no threat whatsoever from long range having nailed just 14 three pointers all season.

There’s still 4 years and $77million left on Wade’s contract and if it wasn’t for the two titles he’s been instrumental in bringing to Miami (in addition to the role he played in getting LeBron to town) then I’m sure Miami would be looking very seriously about freeing themselves of his deal.

Instead, Miami must continue its so far unspectacular season hardly aided by perhaps Wade’s very worst.

Wade will be on the floor at the start of the all star game shaking hands and enjoying being surrounded by the game’s best. At the same time he should most definitely feel he’s the odd one out.

The importance of defense and rest for Denver

When Denver holds opponents to under 100 points their record stands at 18-3. When they don't, it falls to 9-15.

The key might be having a night off. When the Nuggets play with 0 night’s rest they average giving up 106 points and are 4-6 in such encounters. With a day or more off they're 23-11, with their defense giving up less than 100. There's no compelling argument however suggesting their offense is in anyway affected by rest putting up very similar numbers regardless of rest.

Napoli, inflated odds and the Europa League

For whatever my rankings are worth I have Napoli in a select group with 3 other teams (Chelsea, Atletico Madrid and Tottenham) with the strongest claims of winning this season’s Europa League.

I think their odds should be single figures, specifically around the $9 mark.

Instead, Napoli is as high as $18 and is ranked at some agencies as the tournament’s 8^th favourite. Which I find it quite odd.

I understand Napoli is in a fight to reconnect with the greater public after years of being mired in the lower leagues or Italian football. However I feel confident that the connection has surely been made with Napoli not only performing excellently within Italy’s top league these past few years but also well in European competition too.

And it’s this season where Napoli seem to be playing their strongest, most consistently good football.

Over the last 4 Serie A seasons Napoli have finished no lower than 6^th, while this season they sit in 2^nd position, just 3 points adrift of Juventus with striker Edinson Cavani leading the competition with 18 goals.

Progress through their group in the Europa League was routine, and though they didn’t top it, qualification was assured more than 2 games out. In addition the draw for the next 2 stages of completion seems to have been relatively kind to Napoli with their round of 32 match scheduled against Viktoria Plzen, and a round of 16 match set to be against either BATE Borisov or Fenerbahce.

So why are the odds so generous? After all the bookies aren’t exactly known for getting it wrong very often.

For starters, and as suggested, I don’t think the greater public really regards Napoli as anything but a middle of the road team who’s done pretty well during a suspect period of Italian football. I also think the appearance of the likes of Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham in this tournament are likely to affect the market significantly.

Another strong reason may be due to the presence of the always inflated Russian teams. Specifically the Gus Hiddink coached and very difficult to pronounce Russian outfit FC Anzhi Makhachkala along with the big spending Zenit St.Petersburg. Both feature strongly in most markets yet neither are even leading the Russian Premier League.

Perhaps there’s also a strong element of trepidation regarding Italian teams in this competition, with a Serie A Club having neither hoisted the trophy, or qualified for the final, in 13 years.

Ultimately if my thoughts regarding Napoli’s value have failed to convince you perhaps your next best option would be to go Iberian. Portuguese and Spanish clubs have shared 7 of the last 10 Europa League titles with Atletico Madrid and Benfica the best chances this time around. 

Felton's return to jump start the slumping Knicks

I wrote last week of the importance of Amare Stoudemire’s return to the Knicks line-up, primarily around adding some depth to New York’s scoring which has been monopolised by Carmelo Anthony this season.

While Stoudimire’s been decent since his return he certainly hasn’t been spectacular averaging just 11.3 points per night with his highest score just 17. Anthony still maintains an at least 12.6ppg lead over any other player on the roster which as I suggested didn’t exactly bode well for any meaningful team success.

Brooklyn are fast closing on the Knicks who tore away at the start of the season, splitting both their meetings and closing the Knicks’ lead in the Atlantic to a mere 1.5 games.

So it’s the next returning Knicks player, this time Raymond Felton, who New York will be banking on to help maintain their divisional lead and hopefully parlay it into first division crown in 19 years very long years.

For a while the only thing in the former number 5 pick’s life which seemed to be blossoming was Felton’s waste line. However since returning to the Knick’s after stops in Denver and Portland, the former Tar Heel is truly delivering on both his potential and the faith the Knicks had that he could successfully run the point in New York, in the process saving the Knicks a heap of money in not extending Jeremy Lin’s deal.

Quite simply, Felton is having (and by a sizeable margin) his best season as a professional. He’s scoring more and fouling less than at any point in his career while having a huge amount of New York’s offence run through him. Most impressively, he’s turning the ball over at a relatively miniscule 12.1% of his possessions.

When Felton further damaged his hand in New York’s Christmas Day loss to the Lakers, the Knick’s were 20-8 with Felton in the line-up. Since his injury they’re travelling at 6-6, with their January 3^rd defeat of San Antonio their only win over above .500 opposition in 6 weeks. Meanwhile the offence has seemingly stalled, scoring more than 88 just once over their past 6 encounters.

Thankfully for New York, Felton’s return against Philadelphia today will be followed by a 5 game home stand against a collection of teams who’ll bear little relevance to the shape of this season’s playoffs. However as potentially easy as those games will be for the Knicks, they’ll be vital in correcting the course of New York’s season and in rejuvenating their offense, finding alternative scorers to Anthony and once again handing the keys to Felton.

With Anthony, Tyson Chandler and Felton each having their very best seasons, anything less than a divisional crown will be considered a sizeable failure in New York this year. 

Boston's demise shouldn't be a shock

I’m starting to wonder if Boston has what it takes to dig themselves out of this hole. I’m starting to wonder what will happen when they reach for the magic wand they’ve used so often in recent years and find it’s turned to plastic.

Today’s home loss to the Knicks, their 5^th in a row and first at home to New York in 6 years leaves them closer to the bottom of the Atlantic Division than the top- the same division they’ve utterly dominated over the last 5 seasons.

The Lakers have garnered the bulk of attention where failing clubs are concerned, yet their demise may have taken the attention away from the Celtics who face very similar issues to LA be it age or roster composition.

Unlike the Lakers, Boston do currently occupy a playoff position, however that might have a lot more to do with playing in much weaker conference than LA and because of the core three of Rondo, Garnett and Pierce who continue to perform extremely well.

It’d be unfair to compare this Boston team with their 2008 Championship vintage so for the purposes of this exercise it might be more apt to compare this Celtics team with last season’s who were still good enough to push Miami to a 7^th game in the Conference Finals.

And in conducting that comparison what’s most alarming is that statistically it’s not as though they’re performing particularly worse, (in fact in many important areas they're actually doing better) which leaves one to wonder whether in fact the magic has gone and that these Celtics can no longer succeed purely because of the brilliance of Doc Rivers and the continual output of the Big 3.

Though Boston isn’t leading the league in defensive efficiency as they did last season, they’re still ranked in the top 10, while granted their offense is dreadful with only 3 teams performing worse, their offense was awful last season too, averaging under 92 points per night which ranked them 26^th in the league.

The Celtics over the years (particularly last season) have over performed what their numbers were suggesting which if anything masked some of the deeper problems that exist within this team.

Rivers continues to talk about maybe making some big changes but the reality is Rondo’s the solitary player the Celtics have who could possible solicit any genuine booty. Instead Rivers has played around in free agency which has yielded fading stars such as Jason Terry or Leandro Barbosa.

I’m not sure what the solution for Boston is other than the suggestion that they do make changes and of the ilk which will inject both youth and a little something different into the line-up. Unfortunately for Boston fans such changes aren’t going to happen overnight or before the trade deadline expires.

The complexion of the East is changing rapidly and for the first time in quite a while the Celtics bare little relevance to its make-up.

The A-League Run Home

Just 6 points divide the A-League’s top 4 and with 10 games to go scheduling will play a major role in jockeying not just for the minor premiership but for other key post-season positions.

A look at the final 10 rounds of fixtures paints an interesting story in terms of degrees of difficulty. The best news perhaps lies with Newcastle who play just 2 of their remaining 10 matches against teams currently in the top 4, and just 5 against teams currently occupying a position in the top 6.

It would seem the honour of bearing the most difficult schedule goes to Sydney FC and Melbourne Heart. Both teams have fought really hard and achieved excellent results in recent weeks to bring themselves back into relevancy however both are the only clubs to have a full 5 of their remaining 10 matches against current top 4 teams.

MATCHES REMAINING AGAINST TOP 4 AND TOP 6 TEAMS

CCM          4           5

ADE          4            6

MV           3            6

WSW        3            7

NEW         2            5

MH           5            6

SYD          5           7

PER           4           6

BRIS         4            6

WEL          4            7

Based on a very quick format of granting 2 points for a match against a top 4 team and 1 point for any match against a top 6 team (and yes it’s possible to have drawn points for both) here’s a quick, perhaps easier breakdown.

NEW       9

MV         12

CCM       13

WSW      13

ADE        14  
PER        14

BRIS       14

WEL       15

MH           16

SYD          17

Eric Gordon has New Orleans buzzing

Granted, the sample size is incredibly small, but I wonder if the argument can be mounted that with Eric Gordon fit and playing, the Hornets have the hallmarks of a playoff team.

New Orleans might be a little too far back this season for my suggestion to be fulfilled (they’re second last in the West and a full 7 games behind 8^th placed Houston) however all the signs suggest that they’re a franchise in quite good shape.

Since Eric Gordon returned to the Hornets’ line-up around New Year’s they’ve gone 7-3 which scalps over the Spurs, Rockets and Boston in that period.

Prior to Gordon’s return New Orleans were boasting fairly decent defensive numbers which based on points per game is still good enough to rank them in the top 5 in the West while enduring, and by quite a large margin, the NBA’s most brutal schedule.

It’s the Hornets’ offence which has benefitted most from Gordon’s return. Only Memphis have poorer numbers in most offensive measures than New Orleans, however Gordon has bought them back to looking like a much more respectable outfit.

In New Orleans’ 27 pre-Christmas matches they scored more than a paltry 90 just 14 times which was quite dismal. In 13 post-Christmas hit outs, which have mostly included Gordon, they’ve cleared that number 11 times.

Like John Wall in Washington, Gordon’s return has dramatically changed the fortunes of their respective teams, while individually and in short time emerging as their team’s top scorer.

Gordon represents a +12.3 point differential when he’s on the court as opposed to off it. To put that number into context Kevin Durant’s boasts a +13.4, Wall a +9.7.

New Orleans, like most clubs around this time finds themselves in an odd position moving forward. They’re playing good basketball but have dug a hole too big to perhaps make a playoff run yet are playing so well that they might ‘win’ themselves out of the draft lottery which proved ever so kind to them last season.

And draft positioning might be even more important to New Orleans this season as adding another high calibre player to this team would surely have them right on the cusp of playoff contention. 

Lakers must trade Howard

If today’s Chicago-Los Angeles match taught us anything it’s that the Lakers are about as far away as from playoffs as they’ve looked at any point this season.

The lows keep getting lower for the 16 time champions, dropping their 9^th game in 11 and leaving them a full 4 games adrift from Houston who occupy the West’s 8^th seed and just 4 games clear of Phoenix who are bringing up the conference rear.

The Lakers have missed the playoffs just twice over the past 37 years and while they're surely due a pass now and again it’s in their future seasons where genuine cause for concern can be found.

The Lakers roster as presently constituted is the most expensive in the league and also one of the most precarious.

The Lakers moved heaven and earth just 6 months ago to acquire the final year of Dwight Howard’s contract despite the big centre never providing any assurances he would commit to Los Angeles beyond this season.

To compound the continual drama of Howard’s choice of workplace is the fact they’ll have little meaningful participation in this year’s draft due in part to the deal to land Howard but also owing to their aggressive pursuit of Nash.  

As far as I’m concerned the Lakers perhaps need to concede this season as an unmitigated disaster (again they're entitled to one now and then) however they can’t also comprise their future prospects at the same time. The solution would be to perhaps trade Howard now as the risk of him leaving for nothing coupled without any draft representation would be about as serious a situation LA have faced in some time.

With that in mind here are the 5 strongest options the Lakers could and should pursue over the coming weeks.

DALLAS

Owner Mark Cuban seems to think Howard would like to do business with the Mavs however any trade with the Lakers would mean at least surrendering their first pick over the next couple of years, finding another pick from elsewhere and also including OJ Mayo and Jae Crowder.

HOUSTON

The Lakers would know that sending Howard to the Rockets would set their franchise up perfectly so they mightn't be as inclined to deal with the same team who months ago also secured Harden, Lin and Asik. Parsons, Delfino and one of either Morris or Patterson would need to be involved as too would at least one first round draft pick, maybe two.

CLEVELAND

I personally think this would make the most sense for both parties. From LA’s perspective it would mean gaining what’s sure to be a high end lottery pick from the Cavs which would mean selecting as low as they’ve had since 1982 when they used the number 1 pick to land James Worthy. The Cavs might also need to throw the beloved Anderson Verejao into the deal as well. As for Cleveland, they’ll be gaining the best centre in the game to pair with Kyrie Irving. That tandem would immediately make Cleveland playoff-worthy with the prospect of adding LeBron James in 2 years still alive.

BROOKLYN

Howard has repeatedly mentioned he could see himself in Brooklyn and though it was considered a trade involving the Nets was close pre-season, it does seem as though they’ve moved on quite well without his services. The Nets likely won’t be picking in the top 20 which won’t appeal to the Lakers while it might be folly to assume the Lakers would be all in on either Lopez or his large contract.

CHARLOTTE

This mightn’t be the most fashionable move, but one which could make a lot of sense for both parties. The trade would certainly need to start with Charlotte’s first pick which would be in that Cleveland territory and also include moving the number 2 pick from last season, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. If Charlotte refused to budge on Kidd-Gilchrist then they might also have to include their second pick in addition Bismack Biyombo. For the Lakers this would mean 2 top 15 picks to go with Bryant, Nash and the final year of Gasol’s deal.

Reality check for the Wizards

This is an extremely delicate period for the Washington Wizards, owners of the worst record in the NBA.

Despite winning 4 from their past 6, including victories over Oklahoma City and Denver, the reality is sharp improvement was expected of Washington (maybe enough to shoot them into the playoffs?) yet they’ve remained among the league’s most putrid.

What makes this period most delicate is the return of former number 1 pick John Wall.

In just 5 games Wall has again proved himself the Wizard’s best scorer and easily its best player. Wall missed the first 33 games of the season, Washington lost 28 of them. They’ve won 3 of the 5 games he’s been back.

That John Wall means a hell of a lot to this franchise would perhaps be one of the biggest understatements in the league.

The moves the Wizards have made over the past 12 months- the same ones which generated so much positivity (Nene, Okafor, Ariza and drafting in Beal) were orchestrated to best compliment Wall’s game.

In Okafor and Nene (whom Washington inherited a $65 million bill to possess), the Wizards would have genuine size and experience inside. Ariza’s defence and Beal’s supposed elite shooting would in theory constitute ideal perimeter help.

The problem is nothing of what was expected has materialised. In fact Washington has probably regressed and continues to do the same things which in turn generates the high draft picks they keep butchering.

What I find most alarming is that they continue to commit the same mistakes they were lambasted for last season. They’re still taking the most long 2’s in the league (the least advised shot in the sport) and still making that shot with abhorrent efficiency. They’re also the only team in the competition to average less than 20 shots at the rim per game.

Poor inside and as bad outside, it should be no surprise that Washington’s lowly 97.1 points per 100 possessions qualifies as their worst offensive production in 40 years.

However hope remains so long as Wall resides in the capital. Ironically though it’s Wall who also holds the biggest torch in the NBA and one which he’ll be shining brightly on the same people who have invested so much in him.

Assuming the Wizards don’t do anything more to their roster before the trade deadline expires, they’ll have the next few months to sort out exactly what the entire club is all about. From coach Randy Wittman whose caretaker role somehow morphed into the head job, to the increasingly criticised General Manager Ernie Grunfeld who surely won’t have employment in Washington if they’re once again drafting high in April.

The Wizards have the talent to finish 3^rd in the South-East, perhaps as high as second. Their seasonal picking of ping pong balls has grown stale. 

Patriots-Ravens Line

I can't help but feel the Patriot's 8 point line might be too much to cover against the Ravens in tomorrow's AFC Championship match.

The last 4 margins of victories New England have managed against Baltimore are 3,3,6 and 3. 

Taking out Baltimore's dismantling of New England in the playoffs in 2010, the 5 other encounters between the two, wedged in between that blowout, have produced an average margin of victory of just 3.1 points.

The Patriots have won their past 2 matches against Miami and Houston by 28 and 13. The last time they won 3 in a row by more than 8 (thus covering this line) was weeks 10-12 last season and against 3 teams who all missed the playoffs.  

So that's 25 games now since the Patriots have achieved what's being asked of them in tomorrow's match. 

Finally, over the last 3 Baltimore seasons (which spans 54 matches) how many games have Baltimore dropped by more than 8? Just 4. 

For me, it just seems there's too many numerical factors working against the Patriots where covering this line is concerned.

A little love for Deng

The concept of an underrated player is flawed, lacks substance and is open to both ridicule and conjecture. In any event, and in my mind, Luol Deng, top scorer for the Bulls and owner of just one all-star appearance, fits the bill.

I kind of think Deng slips under the radar where the very best players in the NBA are concerned. He's for instance surely among the league's top 50 players, perhaps as high as top 20.

My favorite Deng statistic? Well the Bulls over the last 3 seasons are 80-18 when he scores 16 or more points. And though some will point to the fact that time period coincides quite well with some really successful Chicago teams, the counter argument would be how well Deng has performed this season without the assistance of Derrick Rose.

Deng is the Bulls' leading scorer this season in what's shaping as his very best. He's also their 3rd highest rebounder, their third best option for 3-point shooting and second best player where win share is concerned. Meanwhile just 4 players in the NBA have logged more minutes than Deng's 1487.

Deng hails from the town of Wow, in South Sudan. Wow indeed.

Help for Carmelo

Amare Stoudemire's 17 bench points today has arrived at a key time for the Knicks as they entered their London encounter with Detroit amid a concerning statistical trend regarding their scoring.

Before today's match there existed a 12.5 points per game differential between New York's unquestionable best scorer, Carmelo Anthony (29.3ppg) and their next best option, J.R Smith (16.8).

Despite playing 7 less games than Smith due to a variety of niggling injuries and silly, avoidable suspensions, Anthony has still scored 258 more points than Smith.

For me, this trend is slightly reminiscent of the Cleveland Cavaliers with LeBron James who despite his continual emergence as one of the games superstars had to get by with a combination of poor front office decisions and a collection of teammates who failed to provide him with appropriate scoring support. 

This inevitably became more of a problem as the season wore on and as the Cavs confronted more sophisticated defences in the playoffs- Much easier to cater for one dominant scorer than a collection of threats.

For instance, the year following Cleveland's solitary Finals appearance, James averaged an enormous 16 ppg per night more than his team’s next best scorer, Zydrunas Ilgauskas. 

In Miami's championship winning team last season James remained his team’s most potent scorer however he was depositing only 5 points per night more than Dwyane Wade and only 9 more than their third best scorer, Chris Bosh.

Anthony has arguably more talent and experience surrounding him than what James had in Cleveland however this needs to be reflected in New York’s scoring.

Stoudemire averages a career 21.4 points and though it's unlikely he'll be performing to that level this season, a number approaching that could figure could prove crucial in how far the Knicks go this season. 

A Rice Heavy Diet

Something I really liked from last weekend’s extraordinary NFL Divisional Play-off Weekend was Baltimore’s play calling.

At halftime and when Baltimore trailed by 7, coach John Harbaugh mentioned he wanted to establish more run. Now this is something you don’t often hear, particularly when teams are behind and particularly in a quarterback driven league where coaches grope for any excuse to abandon the running game.

Indeed, and despite a fairly pedestrian 6 carry, 23 yard first half by Ray Rice, the Raven’s reasoned that their very best offensive weapon needed more touches if they stood a chance of upending the Broncos.

And more touches is exactly what Ray Rice got in the second half and surely contributed more than any other factor in Baltimore pulling off one of the great play-off upsets.

The Ravens continually went for Rice on offense giving him 24 second half/overtime touches and continual faith that he would break through despite often small gains.

When behind, especially to a very good team on the road and in an elimination event, a running game that’s not exactly tearing it up could have easily been set aside. But not by Baltimore.

13 of Rice’s 24 second half touches came when the Ravens looked up at the scoreboard and saw they were trailing. Yet each run continually wore down and contracted Denver’s defence opening more opportunities for large Joe Flacco gains such as the 70 yard bomb to Jacoby Jones which forced overtime. 

Baltimore knew precisely what they were doing in dialling up a very heavy Ray Rice workload. And they know the type of success it produces.

Over the last 3 seasons when Rice has had 25 touches or more (a number usually reached through a combination of runs and back-field catches) the Ravens are a staggering 21-1, with that one loss on the road to New England and thanks only to an overtime field goal.

And it’s against New England in this weekend’s AFC Conference Championship when similar Ray Rice production might be of even more importance.

What the Patriots thrive on is conducting offense on their terms while at the same time keeping their still suspect and inexperienced defence off the field.

By repeatedly taking it right to the heart of New England’s defence (as the Ravens did against Denver) by chewing up the clock, keeping the scoreboard ticking and not allowing Tom Brady the flexibility of a completely open play-book, the Ravens in Rice (in addition to brilliant coaching personnel) have a weapon which could propel them to the Super Bowl.

Pomersbach's amazing season

Travis Birt was the toast of the inaugural Big Bash competition last year. His 345 runs topped the league, which he achieved at an average of 43 and with an amazing strike rate of 168. His 46 total boundaries in 8 innings meant he was producing just under 6 boundaries per inning for the Hobart Hurricanes.

This season, Brisbane's excellently named Luke Pomersbach (the bach part is particularly apt) has eclipsed Birt's achievements both in numbers and by virtue of pounding the Heat into the final courtesy of his remarkable, unbeaten 112 Semi Final feast last night.

In 9 innings, Pomersbach, who Ron Reed called the black sheep of Australian cricket, has hit 360 runs @45 with a 146 strike rate this season. He's also averaging more than 6 boundaries per inning. 

Pomersbash, like Birt, has emerged out of relative obscurity with both having to leave their home states respectively to develop their games. Both have been crucial in lifting their franchises into final series’, with Pomersbach likely to be a major player in Brisbane's quest to hoist the trophy this weekend. 

However within these numbers there does lay a cautionary tale for the West Australian native. 

After Birt's breakout campaign last summer he was indeed called up to play t20 for Australia however in 3 international innings he cobbled together just 31 runs and soon lost his place. Those performances seemed to carry into his second Big Bash campaign with Birt managing just 116 runs in 8 innings, with his average dropping down from 43 to 16. He was able to get just 14 of shots to reach the boundary this season. 

Pomersbach's Big Bash feats this season should result in an imminent international call up. Hopefully he'll be able to make a decent fist of his opportunity as the success of the likes of he and Birt, or Aaron Finch or David Warner for that matter not only bode well for the nomads of Australian cricket but for the prospects of Australia at international level and for the strength of the too often maligned Big Bash League. 

Net Returns

There’s been no shortage of apparent contenders to join Miami atop the pecking order in the NBA’s Eastern Conference

The Knicks were perhaps the first to emerge on the back of an aging roster who were putting up 3’s at an almost hysterical rate. The Bulls have always seemed a threat so long as the possibility of Derrick Rose returning remains real. Atlanta has assembled a pesky roster which has proved it has what it takes to stay relevant. Indiana has charged toward the top on the back of lights out defence as well as the sudden emergence of Paul George as a star.

And the most recent arrival at the Eastern Conference pretenders lounge are the Brooklyn Nets.

I wasn’t all that comfortable with Coach Avery Johnson’s Christmastime sacking, (it had the same fingerprints found on the body of Jerry Sloan in Utah), but on hindsight the move to oust the perhaps too conservative coach might have been the right one.

Since Johnson’s firing and P.J Carlisemo’s albeit brief reign, the Nets have gone 8-1 with their only loss on the road to the Spurs. They’ve shot into the East’s top 4 and are now within just 2 games of Miami.

To be fair, up until last night’s defeat of Indiana the Nets winning run had mostly been at the expense of the NBA’s bottom feeders. The Nets however cleared 95 in all but the Spurs game, which indicates a sharp offensive improvement considering that in the final 10 games under Johnson, that offensive watermark was breached just twice.

The Nets remain the slowest paced team in the NBA, which though not affecting their turnover rate (they’re still league average perpetrators) has helped them in transition defence where they’ve remained among the NBA’s top 5 point per game units despite poor defensive field goal numbers.

So what statistical sidenotes do I want to inject at this point to highlight the Nets resurgence? Well I couldn’t possibly write something on Brooklyn without mentioning Reggie Evans.

Evans features in 5 of the Nets 6 most fruitful line-ups and easily remains the team’s, perhaps the league’s, best rebounder. Remarkably he earns $11.5 million less per season than Kris Humphries who he seems to have replaced as the team’s starting power forward.

When Evans plays more than 20 minutes the Nets are 17-4, and 5-10 when he doesn’t.  

After tomorrow’s home game against Toronto, Brooklyn will play 5 of their next 6 contests on the road and all against teams with post season claims. When they do return they’ll have home games against Miami, Chicago and the Lakers meaning that by early February we’ll know just how serious the noise from Brooklyn is.

Hewitt Vs Tipsarevic

I'm a little confused where tonight's odds for the Lleyton Hewitt-Janko Tipsarevic match are concerned.

Granted, there's more than a healthy dose of nostalgia and sentimentality associated with Lleyton Hewitt on any court in Australia, though I'm not sure tonight's odds should be considered an almost flip of the coin proposition. Hewitt's odds at most outlets are around the $2 mark. In my opinion, they should be around the $3 mark.

For starters Hewitt ended the year ranked 80 in the world and hasn't won a title in more than 2 and half years. Tipsarevic finished the year ranked 9th and has won 4 titles over the last 15 months. 

Hewitt is in reasonable form having beaten the likes of Del Potro and Raonic in the recent though not particularly acclaimed Kooyong tournament.

However the most pressing numbers for me are in regards to the differences between the two in Grand Slam play in recent times.

Tipsarevic has advanced out of the first round in 8 of the last 9 Grand Slam events he's contested. His play at the Australian open has been just as impressive, advancing beyond the first round in 7 of his 8 visits. 

Hewitt is alternatively on a very different course where major tournament play is concerned. 

He's advanced out of the first round in only 4 of the last 7 Grand Slams he's played at and been dumped out at the first stage in 2 of the last 4 Australian Opens. Gone are the days, like those between 2003 and 2009, where Hewitt advanced out of the first round at Grand Slam level 19 straight times. 

The numbers for me are quite convincing, and though this might be a close contest with Hewitt likely to show the kind of fight he's famous for, tonight's match might be a bridge too far. 

Keep Ed Davis on the court

When Ed Davis plays 23 minutes or more, the Raptors are a very respectable 10-6. When he's denied 23 minutes, the Raptors are just 3-16.

In this regard the numbers don't lie. Ed Davis is indeed a crucial, though criminally under-used element of this team.

By George, he's great!

In Indiana’s victory over New York yesterday, Paul George recorded his second straight double-double and his third in his last five games. He’s indeed having a breakout year prompting some consideration concerning the drafts of recent years.

George was taken as the 10^th pick of the 2010 draft. I’d argue if the last 4 drafts were all undone and recast, George would be taken within the first six selections.

George has quickly developed into an extremely potent NBA weapon. A gangly, 3-spot player who is performing well above expectations in a Pacers season which presently sees them just two games from the very top of the Eastern Conference.

In a team now ranked as the league’s premier defensive squad, George is ranked as the club's second most vital player where defensive win share is concerned, while he’s pulling in the third most boards.

However it’s his offensive contribution which has most vigorously elevated his status.

George effectively took over from Danny Granger as the lead man on offense when Granger succumbed to injury on the eve of the season. Granger had been the Pacer’s most prolific scorer since his rookie season 5 years ago.  

This season George has leapt from a respectable 12 ppg sophomore average, to 17 this season. His club leading 73 three pointers also rank him within the league’s top 15 long range marksmen. As for sharing, only George Hill has provided Indiana with more assists.

But back to that fictitious re-draft of the past 4 seasons. Here’s my top 30, with an apology to Ed Davis, whom I'll make it up to.

1 Kyrie Irving

2 Anthony Davis

3 James Harden

4 Blake Griffin

5 Stephen Curry

6 Paul George

7 DeMarcus Cousins

8 Ricky Rubio

9 John Wall

10 Greg Monroe

11 Klay Thompson

12 Ty Lawson

13 Damian Lillard

14 Brandon Jennings

15 Jeremy Lin

16 Kawhi Leonard

17 Eric Bledsoe

18 Kenneth Faried

19 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

20 Jrue Holliday

21 DeMar DeRozan

22 Omer Asik

23 Andre Drummond

24 Evan Turner

25 Jonas Valanciunas
26 Derrick Favors
27 Chandler Parsons
28 Jeff Teague
29 Danny Green
30 Taj Gibson

Memphis Misnomer

When we think of the Memphis Grizzlies (officially now the Western Conference’s second most anemic offense) we think of their front court combo of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol as their strength. And while these guys have unquestionable talent, some of the preeminent front court numbers in the NBA are painting a slightly different picture where Memphis’ big man numbers are concerned.The Grizzlies are ranked just 12^th in the NBA for shots at the rim, and third worst where conversion rate is concerned, hitting at a lowly 59%- a figure that only Cleveland and Charlotte are performing below.

Now I don’t think any of these figures should condemn either Gasol or Randolph in any way, but perhaps say more about the Grizzlies front court depth.

Here’s a list of Memphis’ front court players listed by minutes played, with their total field goal attempts in brackets.

Gasol          1116  (332)

Randolph   1094  (426)

Speights       481   (202)

Haddadi         49  (11)

In Memphis’ favor is that any time one mentions their offensive struggles, one should cite their defensive supremacy, which has them ranked numero uno in the league in most statistical categories.

And it’s up front where the likes of Gasol and Randolph are excelling. Memphis are conceding the 6^th least shots at the rim, and are ranked 4^th in the league where defensive field goal percentage is concerned.

Yet, it’s becoming quite obvious that if Memphis is to continue being nestled in the Western Conference’s top 4 teams, some serious upgrades in offense need to occur. And while shooting might be the area in most obvious need, some front court help for Gasol and Randolph might be more paramount.

The secret is Pekovic

Upon discovery of another fracture in the hand of star forward Kevin Love, Minnesota coach Rick Adelman was right to wonder how his team had continued to coast around the .500 mark.

For this franchise who’s struggled mightily since Kevin Garnett left (they haven’t made the post-season in 9 years) the prospect of making a return trip would seem shaky at best without the services of Love.

Yet here we are, more than a third of the season through and the Timberwolves are just one and a half game out of a playoff spot. Meanwhile Love’s played in just 18 of their 30 matches.

So indeed how have Minnesota remained relevant in the West which really doesn’t appear to have weakened? I might suggest one of the main reasons in Nikola Pekovic.

Adelman may have been foxing when he suggested he had little idea how Minnesota was still winning in attempt to reduce the fuel upon Pekovic’s soon to expire contract.

The big Montenegrin will indeed come off the books at season’s end, while it will surely be the last time for a while he’ll be earning in his present $4 million per season range.

The Timberwolves are an odd team to scout. From Love to Andrei Kirilenko, Alexey Shved and Ricky Rubio there’s nothing truly conventional about the team. For a team who plays at a pace baskeball-reference charts as the tenth quickest in the league, the Timberwolves aren’t exactly whipping out the dishes (they’re ranked 28^th) or even getting to the free throw line (14^th).

What Minnesota however has been able to rely on is the traditional center play of Pekovic.

Yes it’s only his third season but Pekovic’s numbers are improving sharply each year. From the 5.5 points per game he logged in his rookie campaign to the 16 he’s posting now ranking him 5^th among centers in the NBA.  He’s pulling in more than 8 rebounds per game, nearly 3 times his rookie output.

Minnesota have made no secrets of their desire to land Pau Gasol, yet parceling Pekovic in any deal with the Lakers would be pointless so long as Howard remains in Los Angeles.

In just 3 years Pekovic has proved himself a high caliber NBA centre in an era not exactly loaded with true big man talent. His stocks have soared this season holding down the front court for the Timberwolves in the absence of Love and continually threadbare big man depth.

If Houston, Omer Asik attracted an $8 million per season contract in the off season and while his defensive contribution is excellent, he’s adding just over 10 points per night to the Rockets. On this alone, Pekovic has a strong bargaining chip to play with during negotiations.

Whether it’s Minnesota who ultimately comes to the party regarding Pekovic will likely have a lot to do with what happens with Gasol over the coming weeks. In the meantime I’d be very surprised if Portland hasn’t enquired, if their attempt to sign Roy Hibbert last off season is any guide.

Boston and Dallas, both aging and slumping teams without much front court depth may also be interested in a Pekovic move.

Bungles

I was as much taken with Cincinnati's finish to the season as most were. The best yards per play defense in the entire NFL over the final seven weeks, complimenting Mike Zimmer’s aggressive schemes which have produced more sacks than any other team over the past two seasons.

However their second wildcard exit in as many years on the back of a totally inept offensive display is cause for great concern.

In last year’s wildcard loss to the Texans, Cincinnati committed 3 turnovers, scored just 10 points and were shut out in the second half, with the 31-10 loss marking a terrible end to a promising season.

However this season’s loss, and the offensive performance which underpinned it, was even more disheartening.

This year, their offense produced just 6 points (they’re other 7 were curtsey of a Leon Hall pick six) while it was kept to less than 200 yards for just the third time all season.

They were a truly miserable 0/9 on third down (they at least went 6/13 in last year’s loss) which was a large reason Houston were able to possess the ball for a whopping 17 more minutes than the Bengals.

Cincinnati has made some excellent strides under the Marvin Lewis regime with 4 seasons of playoff football (compared with the solitary season in the previous 14) testament to the almost total change of complexion for this franchise.

Yet playoff exits such as the last two ultimately count for nothing. Particularly when they bow down without a fight.

Home and Away

This set of numbers is interesting....

Player 1.....17 touchdowns/ 5 interceptions  67% completion rate. QBR 101.3

Player 2.....13 touchdowns/ 4 interceptions  67% completion rate. QBR 101.7

These are numbers posted during home games by quarterbacks set to feature in this weekend's wildcard matches.

Player 1 is Aaron Rodgers, arguably the best quarterback on the planet.

Player 2 is Matt Schaub, at this moment one of the most maligned quarterbacks in the league.


Here are the home QBR figures for all the quaterbacks set to start this weekend.

Wilson   123.6
Schaub  101.7 
Rodgers 101.3
Flacco     99    
Griffin      98.4
Dalton     91.2
Ponder    88.3 
Luck       83     


Road QBR

Rodgers  114.9
Griffin      106.1
Dalton      83.9
Wilson      83.1
Schaub     79.5
Flacco      74.9
Ponder      74
Luck         70.1

Danny Ferry's High Flying Hawks

In Zach Lowe’s recent ‘not quite mid-season awards’ he left out a category that I think would have been quite easy to fill. I’m referring to the GM award which I’ve little doubt should be heading Danny Ferry’s way in Atlanta.

What Ferry has achieved in short time in his role with the Hawks really has been quite extraordinary. Absolutely, coach Larry Drew has been instrumental in hoisting this club into third spot in the East, but it’s been Ferry’s astute tinkering that's put Atlanta in an excellent position this season, and an even better one going forward.

When Ferry landed in Atlanta he would have needed a few panadol’s thinking about the nature of the roster, particularly in regards to Joe Johnson who had/has probably the most outrageously configured contract in the league. Somehow however Ferry was able to take advantage of the Brooklyn frenzy, and send Johnson there before signing a slew of shooters such as Lou Williams and Kyle Korver to compliment the highly effective front court of Josh Smith and Al Horford- in addition
to the continually improving point guard play of Jeff Teague.

When Ferry was done dealing he had the Hawks pay role ranked as low as 18^th in the NBA, but most remarkably had them in a position where next year they’re committed to a comparatively measly $18 million. To put that into context, there’s no other team who can even claim to be committed to less than $25 million next season, while at this stage there’s just 5 clubs under $40 million.

Most encouraging however is that despite Atlanta’s robust roster modifications their level of play in many areas has actually escalated. To have kept pace with Miami in the South-East has been a story in itself, but to my mind it’s been their balanced output which has been most striking. The Hawks are presently playing at a defensive level they haven’t achieved in 14 years, while only Miami and New York have claims to a better point per-game offense in the East. The Hawks have hit the 5^th most threes in the NBA this season owing to the likes of Williams and Korver.

I’d expect Atlanta will be active before the trade deadline, though just how bullish remains to be seen. I’m sure they’ll think very seriously regarding potential big tickets such as Pau Gasol and perhaps Rudy Gay, though it’s what stance they’ll take on the likes of their own talent such as Smith and Zaza Pachulia’s expiring contracts which might be of most interest.

If the Hawks negotiate this period as well as they’ve played the initial stages of the Ferry regime, then Atlanta will be well situated for a deep run in this season’s playoffs with every right to believe they’ll be bigger riches over the years to come.

Going on with it

Of the last 39 occasions Michael Clarke has stepped up to bat, his wicket has fallen just 4 times making between 50 and 99 runs.

David Warner's wicket has fallen within that range 5 of the last 11 times he's lined up. These are his past 4 innings.... 57, 68, 62, 85.

He's been caught 15 times for his last 16 dismissals.

....While a hurricane was blowing

Of the 9 most fruitful partnerships of this season’s BBL, no less than 4 have belonged to the Hobart Hurricanes, with Ricky Ponting playing a key role in 2 of them. Tournament favorites the Melbourne Stars have so far produced just one partnership in excess of 60 as opposed to Hobart’s 4.

On the other side of the ball, there have been just 3 players who have bowled multiple maidens during this tournament. 2 of those players (Bollinger and Doherty) both play for Hobart. No prizes for guessing that the Stars’ Lasith Malinga is the third, and who most certainly figures to be the main character in determining which direction this edition of the BBL might be heading.

The Copy-Cat Pacers

If, as they say, imitation is the cheapest form of wit, then right now the Indiana Pacers have the NBA in stitches, while Chicago looks on stone faced with their arms across their chests.

By virtue of their increasingly competitive divisional rivalry (Chicago and Indiana have been a clear 1-2 in the Central these past three seasons) the Pacers have had a better look than anybody at Chicago’s remarkable defense under Tom Thibodeau.

In fact, in Thibodeau’s first two seasons in charge of Chicago, the Bulls beat Indiana in 5 out of the 7 occasions they met, with Indiana breaking 90 just twice. In that time the Bulls have emerged as one of the NBA’s premier teams and if not for Derrick Rose’s knee injury on the eve of last year’s playoffs, were perhaps well placed to contend for the title.

And it’s through observing, and of late replicating this remarkable defense that the Pacers under coach Frank Vogel have for the moment taken the mantle of the NBA’s most stingy rearguard- as well as the lead in the Central.

The Pacers are currently second only to Memphis where point per game defense is concerned while they league the lead in both defensive field goal and 3 point percentage. Thanks to the emerging Roy Hibbert and their interior defence they’re second in the league for conceded shots at the rim.

The Pacers are also rebounding extremely well, having collected the 4^th most boards in the league, while hosting no less than 9 players who are averaging more than 2.5 rebounds per game.

Granted, at this stage it’s hard to be as gushing about the Pacers offence which ranks third last, though they have been without the services of Danny Granger who since joining the Pacers 5 seasons ago has remained their most potent weapon. In addition, the Pacers lead in the Central also has a hell of a lot to do with what’s been the league’s most gentle schedule to date.

The last time the Pacers were this competent on defense was in the 2003-04 season when under rookie coach Rick Carlisle they made it all the way to the Eastern Finals. Perhaps if they can regain Granger and further upgrade their offense before the trade deadline, they may indeed be the conference’s most legitimate contender to Miami, even if some markets mightn’t entirely agree.

Green Day

During the 4th quarter of the Spurs victory over Milwaukee today (their NBA leading 26th) Danny Green hit his 3rd three-pointer for the match and his 71st of the season.

When Green hits 3 or more three-pointers the Spurs are now 11-1.

Carlton not likely to play finals in 2013

If your list of teams who are better than Carlton stops at say 5 or 6 then these words might have precious little use for you. If however, like me, you can easily reel off at least 8, perhaps as many as 11 clubs superior than the Blues than we might have something to talk about.

In some markets you can get a price as high as $2.80 about Carlton missing this season’s finals. I can’t help but think this represents seriously good value. To be sure I’m staggered that Carlton are considered sixth favorite in most premiership markets.

It would seem to me that Carlton are receiving so much attention predominantly because of their high profiled coaching change. And sure, if you can swap Brett Ratten for Mick Malthouse, I can understand cause for market optimism. Yet market optimism which elevates Carlton above the likes of Fremantle, Geelong, Richmond, North Melbourne, Essendon and St.Kilda? I’m not so sure. The Blues incidentally went 4-5 against that same group last year.

Carlton finished 10^th last season while their 299 goals figured as their lowest return since 2006 when they won just 3 and half games and when of course the likes of Gold Coast and GWS weren't around to feast on.

Their defense was their shining light, and though they shipped as many points as they had in 4 seasons their premier defenders in Jamieson, Duigan, Henderson and Laidler did miss a combined 49 matches.

And it’s in defense where Carlton will be banking on sharp improvement (enough to elevate them back into the finals) as this has been the staple of Malthouse coached teams. When Malthouse took over the Eagles in 1990 he inherited a team who had won just 7 games and boasted the league’s 4th worst defense. Within a season they had won 16 games, were in a preliminary final and hosted the league’s 3^rd best defense. By 1992 they were premiers.

Malthouse took over an even worse Collingwood team at the end of 1999 which had just collected the wooden spoon. He had this lot in grand finals in 2002 and 2003 with top 4 defenses both years.

In fact the Mathouse's special touch goes back to his days coaching Footscray. He began his coaching career with the Dogs in 1984, a season removed from the Dog's '82 season which produced just 3 wins, a wooden spoon and conceded a truly hideous 3,035 points. By 1985, Malthouse's second season, the Dogs were in a preliminary final and had shipped just 2,000 points which was ranked second in the league.

Carlton will need Malthouse to work his magic quickly as indeed Carlton’s list is ageing fast with their top 4 in the best and fairest featuring Scotland, Betts, Judd and McLean, while Carlton isn't exactly swarming with quality youth.

In attack, we’ve surely arrived at a crossroads where their best tall prospect in Jarrad Waite is concerned. Waite's averaged just 12 games a season over the past 4. When he's not playing, the Blues are usually found scrapping for goal scoring options. Last season, only Betts kicked more than 30 goals casting a huge shadow over an area of the park Champion Data curiously (surely mistakenly) rated as the league’s 3^rd best?

Carlton may well make the finals next season, but it will only be because of a defense which will be returning their best players from injury and beacuse they'll be guided by a coach notorious for preventing the scoreboard ticking over.

Yet in my opinion this is no better than a flip of a coin proposition based on an attack which provides me with little enthusiasm along with increasingly strong competition for spots in the finals.

I’d definitely recommend playing them to miss the finals.