The Giants, Jerry Reese and the right kind of cuts

The New York Giants decision to cut themselves free of the final two years of star running back Ahmad Bradshaw’s contract signals a new direction for the Giants as well as further indication of significant change within the NFL.

It was a brave decision by Giants General Manager Jerry Reese to cut Bradshaw loose however we shouldn’t be so shocked. Reece has shown time and again that in assembling Super Bowl calibre rosters, he’s no sentimental fool.

A year ago Reese refused to extend previous star running back Brandon Jacob’s contract sensing the big back from Houma, Louisiana was on the wane. Jacobs had 5 carries this season for the 49ers and was promptly cut prior to the playoffs.

Meanwhile on the same day Bradshaw was told to say goodbye to New York, Michael Boley and Chris Canty, both of whom started for the Giants when they won the Super Bowl 12 months ago, were also told to look for new teams.

Yet it was the Bradshaw move that has created the biggest ripples throughout the league.

Selected 250^th overall in the 2007 draft, Bradshaw emerged as the Giant’s most dynamic and reliable back over the last 3 seasons however he’s also in recent times shown a propensity for injury, often unable to train and forever questionable for matches.

What may have further persuaded the Giants away from committing to Bradshaw was how well the Giants performed in the 2 games he missed this season which resulted in 2 victories by a combined 54 points with the Giants able to produce two different 100 yards backs on each occasion.

Much of the focus of the Giants running attack will now be placed in the hands of former Virginia Tech and first round pick back David Wilson as well as NFL journeyman Andre Brown.

More than anything though Reese and co and have decided that this is now absolutely Eli Manning’s team, while it ought to consider the money the Giants have invested in his ability to successfully lead this offence.

In cutting Bradshaw the Giants have reasoned that for the short term at least, the NFL isn’t a place to be overspending at running back. Indeed the NFL has fast become an aerial orientated league where the ability to score in bunches, and quickly, is king. As admirable and successful as the Giants power running game has been, Reese and co have read the writing on the wall and acted accordingly.

Manning’s favourite receivers Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks will likely and imminently be rewarded with the kind of contracts each believe they deserve. Doubtlessly Reese will dip into the $14 million saved through today’s cuts to satisfy those demands.

Unlike say divisional rival Dallas, the Giants continue to illustrate their ability to evolve and to not be tied to stubborn, self satisfied protocol. It’s the reason they remain so relevant and continue to be one of the league’s most revered franchises.

Checking in on Danny Green

Just over a month ago I wrote a very small entry on San Antonio’s Danny Green and the importance of his 3-point shooting. I mentioned at the time that when the former Tar Heel made 3 or more such shots in a game, the Spurs boasted an 11-1 record.

Well Green exploded for a career high 28 points today in the Spurs victory over Minnesota, in the process draining no less than eight 3-pointers.

Green’s now made 103 long range shots this season at a success rate better than 40% on his 242 attempts.

And what of the team’s success rate when Green hits that three, 3-pointers per game mark? Well after today the Spurs moved to a very solid 16-1.

Perhaps the moral of the story is that if you’re playing San Antonio you‘d better have a plan in place to curtail Green. In addition to Parker and Duncan and Ginobili and Bonner and Leonard and Jackson and Neal and Splitter and Diaw and Blair and De Colo

Michigan State-Minnesota Line

Owing to the success of yesterday’s pick I thought I’d stay in the Big Ten for another day.

The game that strikes me today for having a skewed line is Michigan State hosting Minnesota.

Like yesterday, I feel there’s about a 3-4 gap in the reality of the line, with the difference today being that I think the home team will be able to cover their handicap rather than my usual predilection toward the underdog.

Michigan State are currently ranked 12^th in the nation however come tournament time I see them more as a top 10 proposition. In Tom Izzo they have one of the great coaches in the game, they’ve a dynamic backcourt and are one of the most defensively efficient teams in the conference.

Minnesota however seem to be on a different trajectory. The Golden Gophers made a lot of noise early in the season with Tubby Smith’s team jumping out to 15-1 which at one stage had ranked them 8^th in the nation. They soon lost 4 in a row before victories over minnows Nebraska and Iowa kept their ranking from slipping out of the top 20. They’re currently 18^th.

The most compelling argument for Minnesota being able to cover tonight’s line is the fact they did beat MSU by 13 points at home on New Year’s Eve in addition to a few key injuries for the Spartans.

Michigan State’s earlier season loss to Minnesota may however be explained away by them being in their notoriously slow start mode. Since that loss they’ve won 7 of their last 8 matches with their sole defeat away to number 1 Indiana, and by just 5 points. Their star guard Keith Appling scored just 3 points, and contributed no assists that night. 

Michigan State are unbeaten at home and I really don’t think their first loss in Lansing will be against a team who though promising, mightn’t be quite ready to be mixing it with the bigger boys of the Big Ten just yet. 

If MSU are to keep pace with the Wolverines and Indiana, two teams they’d certainly feel they’re on par with, then today’s game should be somewhat of a formality for Izzo’s squad.  

Michigan-Ohio State Line

Readers familiar with this blog will recall my recent love letter of sorts to the Michigan Wolverines, fuelled more by their exorbitant odds at one betting company rather than any allegiance or connection with Ann Arbor.

Since that article, Michigan lost their biggest game of the season on Sunday in Indiana, relinquishing their number one seed less than a week after claiming the prize for the first time in more than 20 years.

Today Michigan have a chance to atone for Sunday’s loss against further quality opposition, this time welcoming in 10^th ranked Ohio State.

It’ll be the first time these two have ever met with both ranked within the top 10.

The logical narrative is a golden chance for Michigan to atone for losing their number one seed by defeating a fierce rival in front of their adoring fans.

And it’s my opinion that the odds makers might have signed up too enthusiastically to that narrative, installing the Wolverines as a 7.5 point favourite which in my mind is far too high.

Under Coach John Beilein the Wolverines have fared quite poorly against Ohio State and hold a 3-11 record against the Buckeyes over the last 6 seasons. Of those 14 encounters, Michigan has cleared the handicap they’ve been imposed with tonight just twice.

Ohio State is now starting to find their groove and have moved to 17-4 record following their weekend defeat of Nebraska. They’ve won 6 of their last 7 and have moved back into the nation’s top 10 for the first time in 6 weeks. Of their 21 matches this season they’ve failed to get within 7.5 points of opponents on just 2 occasions.

I think the Buckeyes will cover tonight while I thought the line for tonight’s game should have been more around the 3.5-4 margin. The Buckeyes match up well with Michigan having beaten them by 3 in their most recent encounter in mid January. For the Wolverines to overturn that result by at least 10 points tonight will be a big ask.   

Clippers and Garnett would be a perfect match

Rumours of a potential trade which would send Kevin Garnett to the Clippers are intriguing, not just for what it would mean for the upstart L.A team this year, but for seasons to come.

From an immediate perspective Kevin Garnett would constitute an instant upgrade at centre over the incumbent DeAndre Jordan. In Garnett we’re talking about the pre-eminent big man in the East, one of the greats of all time and who at 36 years of age is still generating fantastic numbers.

In Jordan we’re talking about a 7 foot beast who looks and gets paid like a superstar but who really, at least at this stage of his career, isn’t and won’t be able to take the Clippers to the NBA finals this season.

For the Clippers to care so much about the here and now is particularly impressive for a franchise with a truly wretched history. Yes they’ll likely lose Eric Bledsoe in any such deal in addition to the experience and 3 point shooting of Caron Butler, however the Clippers’ bench has been quite solid this season and is more than capable of making up for the losses.

Adding Garnett would provide an immediate fillip for the Clippers as well as injecting a legitimate role-model to potentially elevate Blake Griffin’s game. It'd also upgrade the Clippers' status as a contender to Oklahoma City's crown from pipe dream to genuine.

Indeed if the Clippers were to pull off the Western Crown this season it’d be a staggering achievement and one which would have been achieved through extremely clever front office decisions.  

It would also leave them with a huge headache in terms of what to do with Jordan.

If Garnett was to arrive in L.A, Jordan’s role would immediately revolve around anchoring the second unit which would only make LA’s bench more formidable.

Unfortunately though Jordan is still owed more than $25 million over the next 2 and half seasons, an avalanche of money to be paying for a bench warmer whose averaging less than 9 points a night, whose blocking and rebounding numbers have dropped and whose free throw shooting remains hideous.

Jordan still however has a lot of currency in this league and if Garnett were to become a Clipper, then L.A would have to think seriously about parlaying such currency into moving him on, and ideally for higher end draft picks.

In the meantime the Clippers have some really serious decisions to make over the coming weeks which will be crucial in defining both their short and longer term ceiling.  

Miami's leisurely stroll through the regular season

There’s been something quite cheeky, dare I say arrogant about the way Miami have conducted themselves this season.

The reigning champions haven’t really hit the highs this year, certainly haven’t pulled away from the rest of the league, let alone the East, and seem to regard the regular season as nothing more than a boring chore that has to be served before they can participate in the play-offs.

Sure, the Heat do share a lead in the East, but the fact that there’s no less than 12 other teams within the entire NBA who have won within 3 games of their 29, speaks volume.

There are two main reasons where Miami give me most reason for concern. First is their response to the occasions that do have good wins. The second pertains to their road form which has been patchy at best.

Since Christmas the Heat has won 7 games by double figure margins which is something they can certainly hang their hat on. Yet how have they performed in the follow up game? They’ve lost 6 of their next encounters. I don’t know about you, but a 1-6 record following wins by 10 or more for me paints a picture of an arrogant student who thinks he doesn’t have to attend all the classes he signed up for.  

Meanwhile Miami have an 11-11 road record which ranks them 9^th in the league, having lost on the road to their closest conference rivals Indiana and New York 3 times and by an average of 14 points. In each of those matches Miami failed to score more than 89.

I get the feeling that the public and the markets wouldn’t be treating Miami so respectfully and so patiently had they not won it all back in June. In addition, had they not been getting the outrageously brilliant, night in, night out contribution from LeBron James, then surely more probing questions would be asked of the other South Beach squad members.

My expectation based on what we’ve seen in the first half of the season is that Miami will continue to coast until the playoffs which may or may not be enough to land them top seed in the East. From the playoffs onwards I don’t really have much confidence in Miami as they’ve truly demonstrated precious little to convince me otherwise.

Counting the cost of Koufos' Improvement

Call it ‘most improved’ or ‘breakout player of the year’ or whatever label you wish, however for me this season’s most surprising player has been Denver’s Kosta Koufos.

If you were to tell me at the start of the season that Koufos was to have started 46 games and played over 1,000 minutes before the All-Star break, I would have either said you were crazy or that something terrible had happened to the Nuggets.

While you may or may not be insane, nothing at all has gone wrong with Denver. In fact, the Nuggets and their oddly assembled team are really hitting their straps at the moment closing to just 6.5 division games of Oklahoma City despite a horrific schedule where only Cleveland and Indiana have had to travel more.

Koufos has emerged as the starting centre option for George Karl and has repaid that faith with rebounding and blocking numbers which rank him second on the team while being the only player on the Nuggets roster who can boast a field goal percentage in excess of 60%.

Despite being a first round pick in the 2008 draft, Koufos has really struggled over his first 4 seasons in the NBA, never playing more than 800 minutes in any of his 3 stops, failing each time to contribute more than 5.5 points per night.

It was however his 7 foot frame which kept him relevant in the league coupled with strong rebounding numbers which have mostly hovered around the 10 mark per 36 minutes of play.

Yet it was getting those minutes which Koufos struggled with and which he finally seems to have achieved this season in Denver.

Koufos has become a key element in Denver’s most used line-up (teamed with Faried, Gallinari, Iguodala and Lawson) dwarfing the second most utilised line-up by more than 450 minutes.

While Koufos’ highlight real mightn’t nearly look as impressive as teammate JaVale McGee (who mind you earns $7 million more per season than Koufos) the former Ohio State product has emerged as an almost indispensible part of the team.

With Koufos on the floor the Nuggets concede 102.4 points per 100 possessions. When he sits, that number rises to 108.7.

Interestingly, his presence on offence would also seem to provide a spurt to Denver, and while he submits just 8 points per night, the team’s numbers thrive with him on the court with Denver scoring 112.2 per 100 possessions. It slips 7 points with him on the bench.

It should therefore be no surprise Koufos represents an overall +194 points when he’s on the court as opposed to off it. That number incidentally ranks him 21^st overall in the NBA.

For me these numbers are enough for Koufos to receive some sort of award, though I’m just not sure what it should be named. Whatever it is, I’m sure the Nuggets or Koufos won’t be too concerned.