Thursday, 7 February 2013

Michigan State-Minnesota Line

Owing to the success of yesterday’s pick I thought I’d stay in the Big Ten for another day.

The game that strikes me today for having a skewed line is Michigan State hosting Minnesota.

Like yesterday, I feel there’s about a 3-4 gap in the reality of the line, with the difference today being that I think the home team will be able to cover their handicap rather than my usual predilection toward the underdog.

Michigan State are currently ranked 12th in the nation however come tournament time I see them more as a top 10 proposition. In Tom Izzo they have one of the great coaches in the game, they’ve a dynamic backcourt and are one of the most defensively efficient teams in the conference.

Minnesota however seem to be on a different trajectory. The Golden Gophers made a lot of noise early in the season with Tubby Smith’s team jumping out to 15-1 which at one stage had ranked them 8th in the nation. They soon lost 4 in a row before victories over minnows Nebraska and Iowa kept their ranking from slipping out of the top 20. They’re currently 18th.

The most compelling argument for Minnesota being able to cover tonight’s line is the fact they did beat MSU by 13 points at home on New Year’s Eve in addition to a few key injuries for the Spartans.

Michigan State’s earlier season loss to Minnesota may however be explained away by them being in their notoriously slow start mode. Since that loss they’ve won 7 of their last 8 matches with their sole defeat away to number 1 Indiana, and by just 5 points. Their star guard Keith Appling scored just 3 points, and contributed no assists that night. 

Michigan State are unbeaten at home and I really don’t think their first loss in Lansing will be against a team who though promising, mightn’t be quite ready to be mixing it with the bigger boys of the Big Ten just yet. 

If MSU are to keep pace with the Wolverines and Indiana, two teams they’d certainly feel they’re on par with, then today’s game should be somewhat of a formality for Izzo’s squad.  

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