One of the most appealing aspects of college basketball from
a betting perspective is that it seems some of the prices put up by various
markets seem far more swayed by the court of public opinion than many of the realities
which underpin most professional sports markets.
I think this might have a lot to do with the sheer depth of
teams and conferences and the name attached to certain schools. A good example
this season would be Kentucky. Here’s a team who’ll likely struggle to even qualify
for the NCAA tournament, yet Sportsbet (in part because I truly feel they haven’t
bothered to check their odds in a week) have them listed as $17. The same
market, and to pluck Marquette out as a perfect example, has these Big East
leaders at $101. Even the novice college basketball fan could be forgiven if a
little of their breakfast was spat out then. And a little more when I tell you
Michigan State is still $27 to win the whole shebang.
But anyway back to today’s game. Or rather today’s enormous
game. The winner will likely receive the overall number one seed, or in Indiana’s
case maintain such a mantle, while I’d go as far to say that whoever does win
will hold onto such a tag through to the tournament as there’s only a handful
of regular season games left.
As I’ve suggested a few times on this blog I admire the
Spartans greatly and consider them a really huge shot to bring the national
title back to Lansing this year. With that said, and in welcoming in Indiana
today they’ll be facing their biggest test of the season against a school who
probably has been the most well rounded and threatening all season. Which is a
statement even Tom
Izzo endorses.
When I constructed my own line for today’s game I settled on
having the Hoosiers as very slight favourites. To find instead that Michigan
State will start 2 point favourites is enough to probably inspire this entry.
The Spartans are a highly impressive 15-0 at home this season
with the bulk of those victories against the cream of the Big Ten crop. However
I feel it’s likely that home record is playing the biggest role in establishing
this price.
What that price might be ignoring is that Indiana have
actually only lost once when they’ve been a genuine road team this season and
that was courtesy of a laughable, one in a million type play which saw them
fall to Illinois two weeks ago.
I admit my case mightn’t be that strong in volunteering Indiana
as the better betting option today, largely because undermining the Spartans in
any strong way wouldn’t do justice to many of the kind words I’ve devoted to
them this season.
Yet, my advice is to be clever with today’s game. And being
clever means making sure you’ve first had yourself a share of the $27 Michigan
State national title price- as well as a little something else on Indiana
today.
Either way you’ll be smiling big time after today’s game; if
the Hoosiers win, you win, as well as still having the Spartans at a ridiculously
big price for the main prize. If the Spartans win, you’ll have that tremendously
inflated price before they’ll be turned into about $7. You’ll also have the confidence
of having the number one team in the land during the tournament.
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