Valparaiso-Wright State Line

Avoiding the Australian connection in the Horizon League tournament decider would be futile so it’s worth mentioning that many eyes down under will be tuning in to see if Ryan Broekhoff can lead Valparaiso into their first NCAA tournament appearance in nine long years.

Equally irresponsible would be ignoring the posted line for this match which sees Wright State enter the finale as 7.5 point dogs.

While it shouldn’t surprise that the Crusaders are favourites, after all they were recently crowned Regular Season Champs, I figured the line for this one should have been around the 3-4 point mark.

Just 3 games separated Wright State and Valpo this season (the gap was 7 games last campaign) and while Valpo did sweep the Raiders this season the margins were just 6 and 7 points on each occasion.

Perhaps the most convincing statistic entering this match is that of the last 20 matches Wright State have played only once have the lost by more than the handicap they’ve received for this match.  

Conversely, Valpo’s recent success rate at clearing their handicap isn’t nearly as impressive, having failed to clear their number in 9 of their last 19 encounters.

There’s no doubt Wright State will be giving themselves a huge chance to claim their first championship in 5 seasons having accounted for the reigning Horizon Champs Detroit in the Semi. Despite committing 6 more turnovers the Raiders still won largely thanks to the recently awarded Horizon Coach of the Year Billy Donlon conjuring a game plan which kept Detroit to just 54 points while restricting star player Ray McCallum to just 5.  

Take the points on Wright State in this one.