Are the Newcastle Jets headed for the Wooden Spoon?

The season began so positively for the Newcastle Jets. Their short term future was assured by the FFA, Coach Gary Van Egmond resisted Sydney FC’s overtures while the Jets also signed veteran Englishman Emile Heskey to create quite a buzz in the Hunter.

And to be fair to the Jets they’ve been decent this season maintaining a place in the league’s top six for the bulk of the season assisted greatly by a five game unbeaten start.

Yet things are starting to unravel for the Jets and with just 5 games left there’s a chance their season could end with a wooden spoon.

Yesterday’s decision to allow Ryan Griffiths to immediately take up an offer from Chinese club Beijing Baxy strips the Jets of their best player who has not only scored and taken more shots than any Newcastle player, but whose four assists are twice as many as their next best performer.  

With Heskey having scored just twice in his last 10 matches it’s hard to see where their goals are going to come from, particularly seeing as only Wellington and Perth have scored less this campaign.

While the Jets are currently sitting sixth their position belies their current level of play with only Sydney FC and Wellington sporting a worse goal difference.

Just six points separate the Jets from last place and with Sportsbet offering up odds of $51 to collect the wooden spoon, a small investment might be in order.

Newcastle has won just 3 of their last 16 encounters and have been held goalless on 7 of those occasions. If the Jets are saved from a wooden spoon it will likely be because the likes of Wellington and Perth will have run out of games to chase them down.

Curiously the other major betting companies in Australian have taken down their wooden spoon markets in the wake of Griffith’s departure. All but Sportsbet who failed to adjust their price which really should be more around the $10 mark. 

Minnesota-Indiana Line

Ordinarily the scrutiny associated with being the nation’s number one team, particularly this late in the season, ensures it’s extremely difficult to find value where that team is concerned. But not today.

With Indiana taking their highly impressive, best offense in the country, and at least three NBA bound products into a slumping Minnesota today, I had every reason to suggest the line would be around the double figure mark. That it’s just 5 is surely worthy of notice.

I wonder once again whether this line is being influenced too greatly by the home court factor, an issue I’ve noted in a few of the lines I’ve posted recently.

There’s an argument that Indiana along with being the best overall team are also the best road team in the country, having lost just once all season away from Bloomington while recently chalking up victories on the road to both Ohio State and Michigan State.

This line also might be looking too much at Indiana’s match a month ago with Minnesota when they won by just 7. Perhaps forgotten however is that the Hoosiers had a 23 point half time lead that day with the overall margin in no way reflecting what truly is a sizeable gap between these two.

It’s amazing to think that in Mid-January this Minnesota outfit was 15-1 and ranked in the nation’s top 10. Starting with that loss to Indiana they’ve since gone 3-8 and have failed to score more than 52 in 8 of their past 9 matches. Their chances of a tournament bid are slumping rapidly and won’t be assisted by their last two losses being in excess of 20 points.

Indiana has covered their handicap in 6 of the last 7 games they’ve played. I’d expect them to cover again today. 

Sifting through the remains of Philly's dreadful season

Outside of perhaps the L.A Lakers it’s hard to think of a more disappointing team this season than Philadelphia.

The 76ers are currently four games adrift of the 8th seeded Milwaukee in the East with their awful season compounded by the fact only four teams are paying more salary than the Philly club.

Unlike other franchises whose tailspins contain a modicum of predictability, Philadelphia’s wasn't so easy to detect.

The 76ers were in the playoffs 10 months ago having led the Atlantic Division for a large part of the year. In the post-season they eliminated the Bulls, albeit without the services of Derrick Rose, before taking the Celtics to seven games in the Eastern Conference Semi Finals.

Evidence pointing towards the horrendous Philly season can however be found in an off-season fuelled by an internal misinterpretation of how advanced they were as a franchise.

The 76ers traded out their best player Andre Iguodala in exchange for a deal to land L.A centre Andrew Bynum who not only had just one year to run on his contract but whose historically battered body has kept him from playing a single game this season.

Whatsmore Philly had already re-signed big man Spencer Hawes on a two year, $13 million deal prior to the Bynum trade bringing into serious question the sudden haste to acquire the Los Angeles centre. Despite the deal and Bynum’s inactivity, Hawes has failed to deliver on his part of the deal starting just 11 of a possible 53 games this campaign and averaging just 10 points per night.  

Philly also used free agency to bring in a raft of outside shooters including Nick Young, Jason Richardson and Dorell Wright all of whom are earning at least $4 million this season- none of which have managed to hit the long range shot better than 36%.

Without doubt the shining light in Philadelphia this season has been Jrue Holiday who was recently rewarded with his first All-Star appearance.

The former UCLA first round pick is averaging 18 points and 8 assists per game with a massive 27% of Philly’s offence being run through him. Of concern however is the 38 minutes per game Holiday is being apportioned which is a big jump on the 33 he averaged last year and large numbers for just a fourth year player.

The 76ers are presently in the midst of a five game skid and haven’t topped 92 points in any of their past 10 games. For a club who inspired so much positivity last season there’s now serious fears Philly are about to enter, and perhaps remain, among the NBA’s bottom feeders for seasons to come.

Front office complacency went a long way in sending the 76ers to this position. Front office imagination and ingenuity will perhaps be the only way to bring them back.

Texas-Kansas State Line

Ordinarily a Big 12 match-up between Texas and Kansas State would have plenty on the line, yet this season shapes as wildly different for both, with Texas having their worst season in 15 years and Kansas State having their best in 40.

Thankfully however the bookies are still buying into both the prestige of Texas and the comforts of home court. I’m however more swayed by Kansas State still playing for the Big 12 regular season title and the basic fact of this being a match-up between the best defence in the Big 12 pitted against the second worst offence.

Since Texas beat out North Carolina on their home court just prior to Christmas they’ve gone 5-10 as their schedule weaved through more difficult parts including a 26 point loss to this very Kansas State team.

Kansas State with a win today will likely have one hand on their first ever Big 12 Regular Season title in Bruce Weber’s first year as coach. They’ll also likely receive a top 10 national ranking. Incidentally Texas, based on Ken Pomeroy’s rankings is 98^th in the nation and unlikely to qualify for the tournament.

When I put my own ratings together I had Kansas State as 8-9 point favourites. Kansas State has instead only been imposed with a 3 point handicap which is a number I don’t think they’ll have too much trouble clearing.

Kings not at all regal in trading Robinson

I can’t help but think the Sacramento Kings were particularly hasty in sending Thomas Robinson to Houston as a part of yesterday’s three-team trade, less than a year after taking the power forward with the fifth pick in the NBA draft.

The Kings have seemingly exercised neither patience with the former Kansas star or made any attempt to study the tea leaves.

Sacramento could be forgiven for being more enamoured with their other front court lynchpin DeMarcus Cousins, who despite some concerns regarding his attitude, has put together a much more convincing body of work over his first three professional seasons.

However Robinson’s NBA career is barely half a season long which truly baffles me as to why the Kings have already cut the cord.

Sacramento has likely only looked at the bottom line which indicates that the very minor success this club has had this season has coincided with Robinson playing a very limited role. The Kings are for instance is 6-2 when Robinson’s minutes have been of the single figure variety and 7-3 when his shots are limited to 2 or less field goal attempts a game.

Evidently the Kings have made little effort to see that overall the statistical differences between when Robinson is on the court as opposed to off it are negligible, which isn’t something you can say about the bulk of the Sacramento players.

Most importantly it would seem the Kings have paid no attention to Robinson’s very dramatic college career arc in Kansas and though there’s absolutely no evidence for replication in the NBA, it should certainly have bared consideration before Sacramento picked up the Houston phone call.

When the former Washington DC high schooler landed at the University of Kansas he had some enormous wraps but constituted something of a flop in his first year under Bill Self. He averaged just two points and as many rebounds over a largely forgettable seven minutes per game.

By Robinson’s third and final season he had become one of the most dominant players in all of college basketball, leading Kansas to the National Championship game while averaging 18 points and 12 rebounds. His production earned him second place to Anthony Davis in National Player of the Year voting and some speculation he could be taken as high as number two in the draft. Thankfully Kansas didn’t separate themselves from Robinson after his first year on campus.

For mine, Sacramento has made the kind of mistake in dealing Robinson which if nothing else proves true to form with the majority of the moves this franchise has made over the last seven seasons. It’s hard to think this one won’t bite them quite viciously in their soon to be Seattle based behind. 

Bledsoe to the Jazz- A smooth move

In recent times professional basketball in Utah hasn’t exactly set the world of professional sports on fire.

Yet with the NBA trade deadline set to expire within the next 24 or so hours, the Utah Jazz has an excellent opportunity to make some significant headlines.

Not since the late nineties when Karl Malone and John Stockton roared through the West and helped the Jazz to back to back Finals appearances has the NBA world given too much thought about goings on in Salt Lake City.

While many focus their attention on the more colourful destinations of the NBA, the Jazz have quietly and consistently chugged along, missing the playoffs just four times over the past 29 seasons while in more recent times building a quality squad achieved through a combination of shrewd front office decisions and clever drafting.

With the NBA trade deadline approaching the Jazz have recently become the subject of close examination having been linked with a move which would potentially land Utah explosive L.A Clipper guard Eric Bledsoe in exchange for the always consistent, embodiment of all things Utah, Paul Milsap.

The Jazz are in a strong position as the deadline approaches having gone 15-7 over their last 22 games, in the process solidifying yet another likely playoff appearance with their eyes now on a top 4 or 5 seed. 

However a close look at their squad complexion reveals a significant imbalance between their impressive front court and an aging, makeshift collection of guards.

For instance 35 year old journeyman Jamaal Tinsley is currently running the point for the Jazz and while he’s submitting a decent five assist per night, he’s contributing very little where scoring is concerned while he surely isn’t anything more than just another in a line of stop gap solutions Utah have tried since trading Deron Williams to the Nets.

While Eric Bledsoe doesn’t exactly fit the mould of a copy-book point guard he does represent a significant back court upgrade for the Jazz as well as the explosive presence they’ve been sorely lacking.

Bledsoe’s numbers are difficult to put in context as his minutes have been limited owing to playing understudy to the NBA’s pre-eminent point guard Chris Paul. Yet his per-36 minute numbers are highly impressive and have contributed greatly to the former Kentucky player being the subject of various trade rumours.

Bledsoe is one of just a handful of players averaging 15 points, five assists and five boards per 36 minutes, while he’s also improved exponentially as a three point shooter, jumping from 20% to 43% from long range this season.

While there’s no evidence yet that Bledsoe will develop into the traditional point guard the Jazz likely still crave, many have suggested he could develop into a player like Russel Westbrook, who while not fitting the traditional point guard description, is providing Oklahoma City with the kind of schizophrenic output opposition teams struggle mightily to counter.

Thankfully for the Jazz they’re not embroiled in the kind of desperate situation some teams find themselves in at this time of the season. They can pursue an upgrade at their own pace and needn’t be forced into anything too risky, while one could contend that should they land Bledsoe before the clock strikes midnight, expectations of what could be achieved this season would rise greatly. 

Farewell $27. Your price meant so much.

I’d like to pretend it was the sheer power of this blog, but Sportsbet have just in the past few minutes finally acted and moved their $27 Michigan State title price into $11.50.  Talk about sleeping well past the alarm!

Hopefully the small, anonymous group of readers who visit this blog was able to have themselves a slice of the previous price. 

Michigan State-Indiana Line

Rather than me acting as a spruiker for college basketball’s match-up of the regular season today, these words will instead be devoted to alluding to a handicap discrepancy and opportunity within the Indiana-Michigan State clash. As well as a little bit of a rant.

One of the most appealing aspects of college basketball from a betting perspective is that it seems some of the prices put up by various markets seem far more swayed by the court of public opinion than many of the realities which underpin most professional sports markets.

I think this might have a lot to do with the sheer depth of teams and conferences and the name attached to certain schools. A good example this season would be Kentucky. Here’s a team who’ll likely struggle to even qualify for the NCAA tournament, yet Sportsbet (in part because I truly feel they haven’t bothered to check their odds in a week) have them listed as $17. The same market, and to pluck Marquette out as a perfect example, has these Big East leaders at $101. Even the novice college basketball fan could be forgiven if a little of their breakfast was spat out then. And a little more when I tell you Michigan State is still $27 to win the whole shebang.

But anyway back to today’s game. Or rather today’s enormous game. The winner will likely receive the overall number one seed, or in Indiana’s case maintain such a mantle, while I’d go as far to say that whoever does win will hold onto such a tag through to the tournament as there’s only a handful of regular season games left.

As I’ve suggested a few times on this blog I admire the Spartans greatly and consider them a really huge shot to bring the national title back to Lansing this year. With that said, and in welcoming in Indiana today they’ll be facing their biggest test of the season against a school who probably has been the most well rounded and threatening all season. Which is a statement even Tom Izzo endorses.

When I constructed my own line for today’s game I settled on having the Hoosiers as very slight favourites. To find instead that Michigan State will start 2 point favourites is enough to probably inspire this entry.

The Spartans are a highly impressive 15-0 at home this season with the bulk of those victories against the cream of the Big Ten crop. However I feel it’s likely that home record is playing the biggest role in establishing this price.

What that price might be ignoring is that Indiana have actually only lost once when they’ve been a genuine road team this season and that was courtesy of a laughable, one in a million type play which saw them fall to Illinois two weeks ago.  

I admit my case mightn’t be that strong in volunteering Indiana as the better betting option today, largely because undermining the Spartans in any strong way wouldn’t do justice to many of the kind words I’ve devoted to them this season.

Yet, my advice is to be clever with today’s game. And being clever means making sure you’ve first had yourself a share of the $27 Michigan State national title price- as well as a little something else on Indiana today.

Either way you’ll be smiling big time after today’s game; if the Hoosiers win, you win, as well as still having the Spartans at a ridiculously big price for the main prize. If the Spartans win, you’ll have that tremendously inflated price before they’ll be turned into about $7. You’ll also have the confidence of having the number one team in the land during the tournament. 

Pittsburgh-Notre Dame Line

Today’s Big East showdown sees Notre Dame visit Pittsburgh.

With both teams at 20-6 and enjoying matching 8-5 conference records this encounter looms as a make or break for each where the Big East Regular Season crown is concerned.

With Pittsburgh ranked 20^th nationally and Notre Dame 25th, this game could be considered somewhat of a hard one to pick. Me, well I settled on Pittsburgh as 5-6 point favourites based mainly on their defensive prowess which sees them as the strongest such outfit in a very competitive conference.

I also factored in how poorly Notre Dame were in their last game which saw them capitulate in Providence by 17. Then again, Pittsburgh just went down by 10 in their biggest game of the season against conference leader Marquette on Sunday.

I guess we could go backwards and forwards all day on this one, but the bottom line is the 10 point handicap Notre Dame has received seems ridiculously generous.

For starters Notre Dame has played 75 straight games since they’ve lost consecutive games by a double digit margin. And while the Fighting Irish hasn’t quite turned themselves into the powerhouse outfit of the 1970’s just yet, Mike Brey probably has the best Notre Dame squad at his disposal since those days, with a NCAA tournament victory or three this season well and truly on the agenda in South Bend.

Pittsburgh probably are the better outfit than Notre Dame, in fact they’ll be among of the best outside picks among the unfancied come tournament time, yet I’m just not quite sure they should be double digit favourites in a game against ranked conference opposition. Between you and me they’ve also dropped their last 4 against Notre Dame, having entered each of those match-ups as overwhelming favourites too.

Take the points on Notre Dame or perhaps the $5.30 straight out if you're feeling particularly adventurous. 

First Quarter is key for NBA sucsess

If the NBA has taught us anything definitive in recent times it’s the importance of starting well.

Not some much starting well in the season and banking the requisite wins to best help your post-season position (though it helps immensely), but starting each game well-executing with your best starters and with the pages in the coach’s play book most refined.

Over the last 16 NBA seasons, 12 of the eventual champions have been ranked within the league’s top 5 teams where overall first quarter production is concerned.

The last quarter for instance, when championship caliber teams have likely put away their opponents and often had the luxury of benching their starters hasn’t beared as much relevance with only 7 of the last 14 champions ranking within the top 5.

Most markets consider Miami, Oklahoma City, San Antonio and the LA Clippers as the four teams most likely to win this season’s championship. It’s therefore little surprise to find that those 4 are all ranked within the league’s top 6 first quarter executers with at this stage Minnesota surprisingly holding a place within the top 5 along with Brooklyn.

Most interesting among the best first quarter teams are the Spurs. For all the successes this franchise has enjoyed in recent years they haven’t led the league in the first quarter since their first championship in the 1998-99 season.

This season however they sit at the top the charts for first quarter excellence with an impressive +128, while claiming the honour of being the only team to top 50% for field goal percentage as well as leading the league in long range efficiency. 

Don't forget about Broekhoff

The Australian contingent of basketballers playing in the US college system is not only impressive but testament to the sport’s strength within the junior ranks of this country.

From Northern Alabama to Westmont College in California there’s a list of over 200 Australians plying their trade in a myriad of leagues across a pyramid of divisions in the US.

For a variety of reasons Matthew Dellavedova remains the pre-eminent Australian export within college ranks having already guided Saint Mary’s University to two National Tournament appearances.

Aided by an incredible talent which last year had him short listed for one of college basketball’s most prestigious prizes, Dellavedova’s name rises above the rest because of his Boomers selection at the London Olympics last year in addition to the good fortune of ESPN broadcasting the bulk of his games in Australia.

Yet there’s another player along with Dellavadova who really should be sharing the spotlight. Ryan Broekhoff.

Like Dellavedova, Broekhoff is displaying his talents somewhat off-Broadway in the relatively small, but still Division One, Horizon League.

While Dellavedova’s Saint Mary’s is still technically located within the San Francisco Bay Area, Brokehoff is tucked away in Valparaiso, Indiana whose claim to fame is a popcorn factory as well an annual popcorn festival.

Yet despite Broekhoff's isolation he has the Valparaiso Crusaders at 20-6, their highest winning percentage since the 1930’s as well as first place position in the Horizon League.

Incredibly, Broekhoff leads the league in 3-point field goals while his lofty 44% from long range has him ranked him 9th nationally. No one in the Horizon League is shooting the free throw better than Broekhoff, no one has collected more rebounds than Broekhoff. Most importantly his 5.3 win share ranks him top of the pops too. It’s therefore little wonder that Broekhoff’s a virtual shoe in for back to back Horizon League Player of the Year honours.

Broekhoff has improved in each of his four seasons with the Crusaders and with this being his final season nothing could be better than taking Valparaiso to the NCAA tournament. Unfortunately for the Crusaders, participation in the tournament is open to just one school from the Horizon League while it’s a ticket which can only be claimed by winning the conference’s round robin tournament and not the regular season which Valparaiso have a firm grip on.

Not since 2004 have the Crusaders qualified for the NCAA tournament and not since 1998 have they managed to win a game once there. Doubtlessly if Broekhoff could take this team to the Big Dance then the young man from Frankston, while not taking anything away from popcorn, would surely hold a firm place in local’s hearts for years to come.

We’ll have our best insight into the Crusader’s tournament hopes when they bring in Conference rival Detroit Mercy on Sunday morning, Australian time. Not only will this game be broadcast live on ESPN, but it will provide Valparaiso the chance to sweep the Titans while also taking some revenge for their defeat in last year’s tournament decider.

Broekhoff will be carrying the fate of this small university on his shoulders over the coming weeks, acting as a perfect accompaniment to the equally brilliant achievements of Dellavedova on the other side of the country.

It’s indeed quite an exciting time for Australian basketball.

Time to take the Spartans seriously

Michigan State’s comprehensive blowout of the Wolverines yesterday indeed propelled them into the conversation regarding potential National Champions.

Now I could go about this a number a ways. A statistical feast highlighting the Spartan’s total dominance of what’s sure to now be the former, though brief, number one team. I could go for an ‘I told you so’ pertaining to the line posted for yesterday’s game which somehow had the Wolverines as favourite. I guess this could also have turned into a space to laud Tom Izzo, though that’s best found elsewhere.

But what today’s small piece regarding college basketball will do is act as a public service announcement.

Ok, if we agree the Spartans are championship worthy, and they’ll be ranked top 5 nationally by the end of the week, then it’s almost impossible to ignore the odds one particularly company has failed to adjust in the wake of not just Michigan State’s pulverisation of the Wolverines yesterday, but their gradual, unassuming movement into serious NCAA relevancy.

Sportsbet still has Michigan State at $27 to the win the whole thing. In honesty, about three times the price of what they should be. Centrebet are still dragging their heels and have them at $15 as to do Bet365.

Remember these numbers, as they’ll become a distant, and either painful or very sweet memory, very soon. 

Michigan State-Michigan Line

Once again in the Big Ten. Once again a line that’s as many as 4 points away from what I consider to be the true spread. Once again I’ll be going against my national championship tip, or at least the team who once represented the best value, the Wolverines.

Needless to say anytime Michigan State and Michigan go head to head, it brings most of the surrounding areas of Lake Michigan to a standstill. This being the first time the two have met with both ranked within the nation’s top 10, and this games takes on even more significance.

As I alluded to, this line does confound me. I thought the edge really should have gone to the Spartans. Michigan State is undefeated in Lansing this season and has won 12 of their last 13 home encounters against the Wolverines. The Wolverines on the other hand have lost 3 of their last 5 road games and 19 of their last 25 overall games against their state rival.

Michigan may be ranked 4^th overall and the Spartans 8^th, yet those rankings are flipped within the conference where MSU sit above the Wolverines.

MSU are in better form having won 8 of their last 9, with the Wolverines going 6-3 in the same period. In that time the Spartans have emerged as one of the most defensively dominant squads in the nation while some of the gloss may have fallen away from the Wolverines owing to the gap in scoring prowess outside of Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr.

I think where lines are concerned, the bookies are much more bound by the somewhat dicey, often prejudiced national rankings which really act as a basic guide than anything more. After all, the national number 1 has fallen 5 of the past 6 weeks, while the Wolverines fell twice within 7 days of being given their mantle.

This will be an intriguing game which will provide some strong answers insofar as the pecking order of the Big Ten is concerned as well as presenting a better idea concerning the complexion of the national rankings.

By the end of tonight we might need to get used to the idea of Michigan State being a bona fide national championship contender, a huge leap seeing as they were ranked 22^nd nationally just 5 weeks ago.

Could Juventus win the Champions League?

Am I crazy to suggest that outside of Barcelona, Juventus represent the next best shot at lifting this season’s Champions League? The bookies must think I am, ranking them 5th favourite for the world’s biggest club tournament which resumes this week. 

Juventus successfully negotiated one of the hardest groups in the first phase of the competition emerging unbeaten and having conceded just 4 goals from their 6 matches. Only PSG fared better defensively, letting through 3, however they were pitted against much gentler opposition than most.  

In a group which also contained Chelsea, Shakhtar Donetsk and Danish champions Nordsjaelland, Juventus generated more shots than any other team in the Champions League while conceded the 6th fewest.

That were ranked within the competition's top third for tackles, and 6th overall for intercepted passes. 

Juventus’ domestic form has been even more impressive, leading the Serie A by 5 points while possessing a goal difference of +34, having scored the most goals as well as conceding the least. 

Juventus top every major statistical category in Italy this season thanks largely to a very talented midfield anchored by one of the world’s very best, Andrea Pirlo and a consistently efficient defence. 

Juventus’ Achilles heel as the competition enters its tougher phase may pertain to not having one reliable 'go-to' scoring threat. In the serie A this season there’s no less than 16 players who have scored 8 or more goals. None are from Juventus. 

What may however work to Juventus’ advantage is that their goals have mostly arrived via committee this rather than a sole marksmen or two. 

This season they’ve no less than 8 players who’ve scored 4 or more goals. In the group stage of the Champions League, 5 different Juventus players found themselves on the score sheet.

In addition, the 'Old Lady' of Italian football will also be able to call upon the services of French legend Nicolas Anelka whom they recently signed on load from Chinese Club, Shanghai Shenhua.

Juventus were lucky enough to have drawn Celtic for their round of 16 fixture, and though the Scots famously beat Barcelona back in November, one would think knocking out the 28-time Italian Champs would likely constitute even more of an upset. 

Yes, Barcelona deserves their favortism for Europe’s biggest tournament, but Juventus may well represent the best chance of knocking the Catalans off come late May. 

A highly revealing Clippers win

The Los Angeles Clippers defeat of the Knicks today in Madison Square Garden represented what the Clippers will hope works as a metaphor for their season.

A big game, backs against the wall but with hopes high having their full complement of stars available.

A great start ensued where the Clippers had themselves a double digit lead in the second quarter. Sort of similar I suppose to their 17 game win streak early in the season.

But then things went awry. Carmelo went crazy and scored 18 in the third quarter and by 3 quarter time, the Clippers lead was down to just 1. Sort of similar to how L.A's season has struggled of late, losing 8 of their past 11 and seeing their division lead cut to just 4 games.

Yet it’s the last quarter which will have the Clippers feeling good about themselves. A steadying win, in the end by 14, with great contributions across the board both from their stars and from their famed bench.

Doubters however might suggest this was only one win, and only against a Knicks team who’s actual ability doesn’t quite match their lofty record.

Perhaps the truth lies somewhere in between? That today’s win proves the Clippers are indeed a playoff calibre team, but with some serious questions still persisting as to whether they’ll have any real impact once the post-season begins. After all they were thumped in Miami by 22 points on Saturday with an almost identical line-up in place.

The Clippers more than any other club will be monitored fiercely over the coming 11 days regarding any changes to their team with the trade deadline fast approaching.

I get the feeling if they do make some sort of move their season might have a real chance of going quite deep. Stand pat however and the Clippers, though still good enough to make the playoffs, will likely be there for only a round or two, having achieved nothing more than they did last season.

Weighing up a potential Boozer-Bargnani deal

The strongest element of Toronto trading for the services of Rudy Gay last week was that the move gave the Raptors the skeleton of an extremely effective starting five.

Missing however was an NBA hardened, scoring orientated power forward who for at least the next couple of years would take on the brunt of Toronto’s front-court production while Jonas Valanciunas furthered developed his game.

The Raptors haven’t concealed their desire to land a high calibre forward ever since Chris Bosh decided to take his talents to South Beach. Since then Toronto have kept their dreamy eyes mostly on Pau Gasol however they’ve maintained room in their heart for other forwards comparable to Gasol’s status in the league.

In Chicago’s Carlos Boozer, the Raptors might have found their man.

A trade between the Bulls and Toronto which would potential send former number one pick Andrea Bargnani to Chicago has been rumoured with a few other undisclosed pieces thrown in to round out the deal.

Chicago’s participation in the trade is motivated on the one hand to solve some of their offensive concerns which are being highlighted by an inability to hit threes. Only Memphis has scored and attempted fewer long range shots than the Bulls, while Bargnani has already hit 571 over his first seven seasons as an NBA pro.

A further motivation for the Bulls would be getting themselves out of Boozer’s deal which still has two and half years and nearly $40 million left on it. Bargnani's deal has the same time frame still remaining, though he’s owed around $5 million per season less than Boozer.

Despite each being highly criticised players, Toronto and the Bulls for instance are statistically much better teams with these guys off the court as opposed to on it, both Bargnani and Boozer in the right settings and situations, have the potential to help their teams significantly.

This trade would make a lot of sense as Bargnani's defensive short comings could be limited playing in Tom Thibodeau’s famed defensive system, while Boozer would be first and foremost required to score for the Raptors rather than provide the type lock down defense he's never been comfortable with.

Criticism of this deal from a Toronto perspective revolves around money. For a team some 15 games below.500 to be flirting with paying the luxury tax is a big risk. For Chicago, dealing Boozer would also mean dealing the club’s second most proficient scorer, in addition to a strong element of what’s been a very successfully side over the past few years.   

Ultimately the Raptors are desperate to put together a strong squad with money not appearing to be too much of a roadblock. The Bulls meanwhile have arguable been caught, perhaps surpassed, by divisional rival Indiana while they might also feel that now is the perfect time to capitalise on what’s still valuable in Boozer’s game.  

The Giants, Jerry Reese and the right kind of cuts

The New York Giants decision to cut themselves free of the final two years of star running back Ahmad Bradshaw’s contract signals a new direction for the Giants as well as further indication of significant change within the NFL.

It was a brave decision by Giants General Manager Jerry Reese to cut Bradshaw loose however we shouldn’t be so shocked. Reece has shown time and again that in assembling Super Bowl calibre rosters, he’s no sentimental fool.

A year ago Reese refused to extend previous star running back Brandon Jacob’s contract sensing the big back from Houma, Louisiana was on the wane. Jacobs had 5 carries this season for the 49ers and was promptly cut prior to the playoffs.

Meanwhile on the same day Bradshaw was told to say goodbye to New York, Michael Boley and Chris Canty, both of whom started for the Giants when they won the Super Bowl 12 months ago, were also told to look for new teams.

Yet it was the Bradshaw move that has created the biggest ripples throughout the league.

Selected 250^th overall in the 2007 draft, Bradshaw emerged as the Giant’s most dynamic and reliable back over the last 3 seasons however he’s also in recent times shown a propensity for injury, often unable to train and forever questionable for matches.

What may have further persuaded the Giants away from committing to Bradshaw was how well the Giants performed in the 2 games he missed this season which resulted in 2 victories by a combined 54 points with the Giants able to produce two different 100 yards backs on each occasion.

Much of the focus of the Giants running attack will now be placed in the hands of former Virginia Tech and first round pick back David Wilson as well as NFL journeyman Andre Brown.

More than anything though Reese and co and have decided that this is now absolutely Eli Manning’s team, while it ought to consider the money the Giants have invested in his ability to successfully lead this offence.

In cutting Bradshaw the Giants have reasoned that for the short term at least, the NFL isn’t a place to be overspending at running back. Indeed the NFL has fast become an aerial orientated league where the ability to score in bunches, and quickly, is king. As admirable and successful as the Giants power running game has been, Reese and co have read the writing on the wall and acted accordingly.

Manning’s favourite receivers Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks will likely and imminently be rewarded with the kind of contracts each believe they deserve. Doubtlessly Reese will dip into the $14 million saved through today’s cuts to satisfy those demands.

Unlike say divisional rival Dallas, the Giants continue to illustrate their ability to evolve and to not be tied to stubborn, self satisfied protocol. It’s the reason they remain so relevant and continue to be one of the league’s most revered franchises.

Checking in on Danny Green

Just over a month ago I wrote a very small entry on San Antonio’s Danny Green and the importance of his 3-point shooting. I mentioned at the time that when the former Tar Heel made 3 or more such shots in a game, the Spurs boasted an 11-1 record.

Well Green exploded for a career high 28 points today in the Spurs victory over Minnesota, in the process draining no less than eight 3-pointers.

Green’s now made 103 long range shots this season at a success rate better than 40% on his 242 attempts.

And what of the team’s success rate when Green hits that three, 3-pointers per game mark? Well after today the Spurs moved to a very solid 16-1.

Perhaps the moral of the story is that if you’re playing San Antonio you‘d better have a plan in place to curtail Green. In addition to Parker and Duncan and Ginobili and Bonner and Leonard and Jackson and Neal and Splitter and Diaw and Blair and De Colo

Michigan State-Minnesota Line

Owing to the success of yesterday’s pick I thought I’d stay in the Big Ten for another day.

The game that strikes me today for having a skewed line is Michigan State hosting Minnesota.

Like yesterday, I feel there’s about a 3-4 gap in the reality of the line, with the difference today being that I think the home team will be able to cover their handicap rather than my usual predilection toward the underdog.

Michigan State are currently ranked 12^th in the nation however come tournament time I see them more as a top 10 proposition. In Tom Izzo they have one of the great coaches in the game, they’ve a dynamic backcourt and are one of the most defensively efficient teams in the conference.

Minnesota however seem to be on a different trajectory. The Golden Gophers made a lot of noise early in the season with Tubby Smith’s team jumping out to 15-1 which at one stage had ranked them 8^th in the nation. They soon lost 4 in a row before victories over minnows Nebraska and Iowa kept their ranking from slipping out of the top 20. They’re currently 18^th.

The most compelling argument for Minnesota being able to cover tonight’s line is the fact they did beat MSU by 13 points at home on New Year’s Eve in addition to a few key injuries for the Spartans.

Michigan State’s earlier season loss to Minnesota may however be explained away by them being in their notoriously slow start mode. Since that loss they’ve won 7 of their last 8 matches with their sole defeat away to number 1 Indiana, and by just 5 points. Their star guard Keith Appling scored just 3 points, and contributed no assists that night. 

Michigan State are unbeaten at home and I really don’t think their first loss in Lansing will be against a team who though promising, mightn’t be quite ready to be mixing it with the bigger boys of the Big Ten just yet. 

If MSU are to keep pace with the Wolverines and Indiana, two teams they’d certainly feel they’re on par with, then today’s game should be somewhat of a formality for Izzo’s squad.  

Michigan-Ohio State Line

Readers familiar with this blog will recall my recent love letter of sorts to the Michigan Wolverines, fuelled more by their exorbitant odds at one betting company rather than any allegiance or connection with Ann Arbor.

Since that article, Michigan lost their biggest game of the season on Sunday in Indiana, relinquishing their number one seed less than a week after claiming the prize for the first time in more than 20 years.

Today Michigan have a chance to atone for Sunday’s loss against further quality opposition, this time welcoming in 10^th ranked Ohio State.

It’ll be the first time these two have ever met with both ranked within the top 10.

The logical narrative is a golden chance for Michigan to atone for losing their number one seed by defeating a fierce rival in front of their adoring fans.

And it’s my opinion that the odds makers might have signed up too enthusiastically to that narrative, installing the Wolverines as a 7.5 point favourite which in my mind is far too high.

Under Coach John Beilein the Wolverines have fared quite poorly against Ohio State and hold a 3-11 record against the Buckeyes over the last 6 seasons. Of those 14 encounters, Michigan has cleared the handicap they’ve been imposed with tonight just twice.

Ohio State is now starting to find their groove and have moved to 17-4 record following their weekend defeat of Nebraska. They’ve won 6 of their last 7 and have moved back into the nation’s top 10 for the first time in 6 weeks. Of their 21 matches this season they’ve failed to get within 7.5 points of opponents on just 2 occasions.

I think the Buckeyes will cover tonight while I thought the line for tonight’s game should have been more around the 3.5-4 margin. The Buckeyes match up well with Michigan having beaten them by 3 in their most recent encounter in mid January. For the Wolverines to overturn that result by at least 10 points tonight will be a big ask.   

Clippers and Garnett would be a perfect match

Rumours of a potential trade which would send Kevin Garnett to the Clippers are intriguing, not just for what it would mean for the upstart L.A team this year, but for seasons to come.

From an immediate perspective Kevin Garnett would constitute an instant upgrade at centre over the incumbent DeAndre Jordan. In Garnett we’re talking about the pre-eminent big man in the East, one of the greats of all time and who at 36 years of age is still generating fantastic numbers.

In Jordan we’re talking about a 7 foot beast who looks and gets paid like a superstar but who really, at least at this stage of his career, isn’t and won’t be able to take the Clippers to the NBA finals this season.

For the Clippers to care so much about the here and now is particularly impressive for a franchise with a truly wretched history. Yes they’ll likely lose Eric Bledsoe in any such deal in addition to the experience and 3 point shooting of Caron Butler, however the Clippers’ bench has been quite solid this season and is more than capable of making up for the losses.

Adding Garnett would provide an immediate fillip for the Clippers as well as injecting a legitimate role-model to potentially elevate Blake Griffin’s game. It'd also upgrade the Clippers' status as a contender to Oklahoma City's crown from pipe dream to genuine.

Indeed if the Clippers were to pull off the Western Crown this season it’d be a staggering achievement and one which would have been achieved through extremely clever front office decisions.  

It would also leave them with a huge headache in terms of what to do with Jordan.

If Garnett was to arrive in L.A, Jordan’s role would immediately revolve around anchoring the second unit which would only make LA’s bench more formidable.

Unfortunately though Jordan is still owed more than $25 million over the next 2 and half seasons, an avalanche of money to be paying for a bench warmer whose averaging less than 9 points a night, whose blocking and rebounding numbers have dropped and whose free throw shooting remains hideous.

Jordan still however has a lot of currency in this league and if Garnett were to become a Clipper, then L.A would have to think seriously about parlaying such currency into moving him on, and ideally for higher end draft picks.

In the meantime the Clippers have some really serious decisions to make over the coming weeks which will be crucial in defining both their short and longer term ceiling.  

Miami's leisurely stroll through the regular season

There’s been something quite cheeky, dare I say arrogant about the way Miami have conducted themselves this season.

The reigning champions haven’t really hit the highs this year, certainly haven’t pulled away from the rest of the league, let alone the East, and seem to regard the regular season as nothing more than a boring chore that has to be served before they can participate in the play-offs.

Sure, the Heat do share a lead in the East, but the fact that there’s no less than 12 other teams within the entire NBA who have won within 3 games of their 29, speaks volume.

There are two main reasons where Miami give me most reason for concern. First is their response to the occasions that do have good wins. The second pertains to their road form which has been patchy at best.

Since Christmas the Heat has won 7 games by double figure margins which is something they can certainly hang their hat on. Yet how have they performed in the follow up game? They’ve lost 6 of their next encounters. I don’t know about you, but a 1-6 record following wins by 10 or more for me paints a picture of an arrogant student who thinks he doesn’t have to attend all the classes he signed up for.  

Meanwhile Miami have an 11-11 road record which ranks them 9^th in the league, having lost on the road to their closest conference rivals Indiana and New York 3 times and by an average of 14 points. In each of those matches Miami failed to score more than 89.

I get the feeling that the public and the markets wouldn’t be treating Miami so respectfully and so patiently had they not won it all back in June. In addition, had they not been getting the outrageously brilliant, night in, night out contribution from LeBron James, then surely more probing questions would be asked of the other South Beach squad members.

My expectation based on what we’ve seen in the first half of the season is that Miami will continue to coast until the playoffs which may or may not be enough to land them top seed in the East. From the playoffs onwards I don’t really have much confidence in Miami as they’ve truly demonstrated precious little to convince me otherwise.

Counting the cost of Koufos' Improvement

Call it ‘most improved’ or ‘breakout player of the year’ or whatever label you wish, however for me this season’s most surprising player has been Denver’s Kosta Koufos.

If you were to tell me at the start of the season that Koufos was to have started 46 games and played over 1,000 minutes before the All-Star break, I would have either said you were crazy or that something terrible had happened to the Nuggets.

While you may or may not be insane, nothing at all has gone wrong with Denver. In fact, the Nuggets and their oddly assembled team are really hitting their straps at the moment closing to just 6.5 division games of Oklahoma City despite a horrific schedule where only Cleveland and Indiana have had to travel more.

Koufos has emerged as the starting centre option for George Karl and has repaid that faith with rebounding and blocking numbers which rank him second on the team while being the only player on the Nuggets roster who can boast a field goal percentage in excess of 60%.

Despite being a first round pick in the 2008 draft, Koufos has really struggled over his first 4 seasons in the NBA, never playing more than 800 minutes in any of his 3 stops, failing each time to contribute more than 5.5 points per night.

It was however his 7 foot frame which kept him relevant in the league coupled with strong rebounding numbers which have mostly hovered around the 10 mark per 36 minutes of play.

Yet it was getting those minutes which Koufos struggled with and which he finally seems to have achieved this season in Denver.

Koufos has become a key element in Denver’s most used line-up (teamed with Faried, Gallinari, Iguodala and Lawson) dwarfing the second most utilised line-up by more than 450 minutes.

While Koufos’ highlight real mightn’t nearly look as impressive as teammate JaVale McGee (who mind you earns $7 million more per season than Koufos) the former Ohio State product has emerged as an almost indispensible part of the team.

With Koufos on the floor the Nuggets concede 102.4 points per 100 possessions. When he sits, that number rises to 108.7.

Interestingly, his presence on offence would also seem to provide a spurt to Denver, and while he submits just 8 points per night, the team’s numbers thrive with him on the court with Denver scoring 112.2 per 100 possessions. It slips 7 points with him on the bench.

It should therefore be no surprise Koufos represents an overall +194 points when he’s on the court as opposed to off it. That number incidentally ranks him 21^st overall in the NBA.

For me these numbers are enough for Koufos to receive some sort of award, though I’m just not sure what it should be named. Whatever it is, I’m sure the Nuggets or Koufos won’t be too concerned.