Meet Arizona- Your Bracket Buster

By continually being externally overrated and for the most part underperforming throughout the season, Arizona executed the perfect quinella which didn’t exactly endear themselves to audiences.

Despite a second place finish in the Pac 12 and a semi-final exit in the conference tournament the Wildcats somehow still wound up ranked in the AP top 25 and perhaps even more surprisingly found themselves with a 6 seed in the NCAA tournament.

Yet over the first two tournament games Arizona looked as good as they have all season posting two wins by a combined 40 while in the process keeping their last 5 opponents to less than 70 points.  

In fact their present level of defensive play has been at a rate Arizona have strived for all season and something Coach Sean Miller has tried to inject into the program since taking over five seasons ago. 

Ironically it’s a fundamental he was indoctrinated into by his opposing coach in tomorrow’s Sweet 16 match up against Ohio State, having worked as Thad Matta’s assistant for five years when he was at the helm at Xavier.

Arizona will start underdogs against Ohio State, themselves one of the hottest teams in college basketball at the moment, however the match up in Los Angeles could work as a de facto home match for the Wildcats owing to its relatively close proximity to Tucson.

Meanwhile Ohio State doesn’t necessarily boast the kind of offense which is likely to give Arizona too much concern.

Arizona this season has a 23-1 record when they’ve kept opponents to 69 or less and which is a mark the Buckeyes have failed to break in 20 of their 36 total matches. In simple terms, if the Wildcats can keep Ohio State out of its rhythm, this game could well work in their favour.

Should Arizona defeat Ohio State, an easier match against either Wichita State or La Salle awaits for a battle to qualify for the Final 4.

With Centrebet offering odds of $26 about the Wildcats winning the whole shebang (as opposed to Sportsbet’s $13), Arizona might make for a wise investment and certainly qualifies as the best value still floating around.

The Wonderful J.R. Smith

If the Knicks are to maintain their two game lead on Brooklyn and deliver New York their first Division Title since 1994 the over arching story line will undoubtedly be Carmelo Anthony. There should however be a large asterix next to his name.

No, not an asterix suggesting any foul play or any asterix which in any way disputes the brilliance of his season, but an asterix which works as a commemoration of his teammate J.R Smith’s season which has been almost as vital to New York’s ascension.

Anthony has indeed been sensation this campaign. He’s at times been forced out with injury and suspension but the reality is his season has been near flawless and if not for a man named LeBron could possibly be the lead candidate for this season’s MVP award. And that list includes Kevin Durant.

Yet the credit placed on Anthony’s season wouldn’t have had the same gravitas if not for the Knicks success, which in turn mightn’t have happened if not for Smith.

Smith’s tattoos and some of the off field story lines he generates rarely go unnoticed yet his night to night contribution to the teams he’s been a part of unfortunately do.

This has probably been the banner year of Smith’s resume. In a season where so many questions have been asked of New York’s ability to find scorers outside outside of Anthony, Smith has responded time and time again.

For a player who hasn’t started a single game this season Smith has been called upon for more minutes than any other Knick, thrown in to any number of line-ups with and without Anthony in addition to playing among a litany of questionable talent.

Yet all Smith has done is kept shooting and scoring, averaging 20 points this month alone while posting career best numbers across the board including both assists and turnovers.  

It’s therefore little surprise that he’ll be posting his career best win share number by the time the season expires. Equally impressive is that of the Knicks players to have posted heavy minutes, numbers are suggested his defensive contribution is equally outstanding with the Knicks giving up more points per possession when he rests than any other player.

Smith’s value might be most evident come playoff time when matches are often decided on the ability to execute in the half court and when pure shooting and the ability to get to the basket are paramount. In this regard having both Anthony and Smith on the floor together will play a huge role in how far New York can progress in the post-season.

Great Weekend for the Great Lakes

It’d be hard to imagine the two teams representing the state of Michigan at this year’s NCAA tournament could have produced better weekends.

Both Michigan State and the Wolverines breezed through their opening two games by a combined 73 points and thus booked places in next weekend’s sweet 16- the first time the two teams have ever simultaneously featured at such a deep stage.

For the Wolverines it’s the first time they’ve ever produced back to back double digit victories at the NCAA tournament and the furthest they’ve progressed at the tournament in 20 years.

Most importantly it puts to bed their uninspiring finish to the regular season which saw them go 6-6 to close out the season watching both Indiana and Ohio State claim the two major Big Ten honours.

As for Michigan State their 11 and 22 point victories over Valparaiso and Memphis are a great portent for an even deeper run by the Spartans.

On the two occasions Michigan State won national titles each run began with back to back double digit victories. Interestingly when they last won the title in 2000 their run also started with a victory against Valpo.

If there is a drawback for both teams it’s that they’ll likely enter next weekend’s games as the lower seeded team and against two of the nation’s very best and most storied programs in Duke and Kansas.

Thankfully however, and judging by this weekend’s games, both Michigan State and the Wolverines look to be in season best condition at the most important time of the year and will both give themselves huge chances of bringing a national title back to the Great Lakes. 

Is this the best Nuggets team of all time?

When thinking about this season’s Denver Nuggets there are two questions which stand out; The first is whether this Nuggets team is the best assembled in franchise history. The second is whether this is a team that can do any damage in the post-season.

Before any attempts at answering those questions can begin a quick snapshot of Denver’s season is necessary.

If pressed I would opt for the narrative which saw Denver begin with a horrendous early season schedule where 22 of their first 32 games were on the road. At the end of that run the Nuggets emerged two games above .500 which really was an enormous achievement even if the NBA’s attention had moved elsewhere.

As Denver’s schedule became friendlier their record surged to a point they’re now 23 games above .500 having won their past 11 games. They boast the league’s third most potent offense predicated on a high paced, penetrative philosophy which has also created a seemingly ideal situation for the likes of Danilo Gallinari and of late Wilson Chandler on the perimeter.

Most importantly Denver’s surge has seen them move to within a half game of claiming the West’s third seed which could prove crucial for the Nuggets as nabbing such a seed could see them take advantage of their incredible home court advantage where they are a staggering 30-3.  

Since joining the NBA in the mid 70’s the Nuggets have never had a team which has scaled the heights they’re now experiencing. Granted there was a run in the 2008-09 season where Denver took the Lakers to 6 games in the Western Conference Finals yet there was a sense something was not quite right with that squad owing to the imminent departure of star player Carmelo Anthony in addition to a defense which not even the most ardent Nugget fan would have considered Finals worthy.

Which brings us back to this Denver team and whether it constitutes the best yet in Mile High history.

I believe the answer to that questions lies in the relative quality of Denver’s defense this season which ranks as the best Coach George Karl has had in his almost nine seasons in Denver. During Denver’s 11 game streak they’ve held opponents under 100 on seven occasions while they boast an overall 28-3 record when they hold opponents under that mark. They’re 17-19 when they don’t.

To return to the initial question of whether the Nuggets can cause any damage this season revolves deeply around how the Nuggets negotiate their final 15 games and also a lot to do with how Memphis fairs over the same span.

If they can finish above the Grizzlies they can grab home field for at least the first round, while that third seed remains alive so long as the Clippers continue their mediocre form. A factor which might prove crucial is that Denver holds tie breaker advantages over both Memphis and the Clippers this season.  

Denver has made the playoffs in each of the past nine seasons. They’ve been bundled out straight away on eight of those occasions. A similar fate this season would be a major disappointment considering the strength of their campaign thus far. 

Valparaiso-Wright State Line

Avoiding the Australian connection in the Horizon League tournament decider would be futile so it’s worth mentioning that many eyes down under will be tuning in to see if Ryan Broekhoff can lead Valparaiso into their first NCAA tournament appearance in nine long years.

Equally irresponsible would be ignoring the posted line for this match which sees Wright State enter the finale as 7.5 point dogs.

While it shouldn’t surprise that the Crusaders are favourites, after all they were recently crowned Regular Season Champs, I figured the line for this one should have been around the 3-4 point mark.

Just 3 games separated Wright State and Valpo this season (the gap was 7 games last campaign) and while Valpo did sweep the Raiders this season the margins were just 6 and 7 points on each occasion.

Perhaps the most convincing statistic entering this match is that of the last 20 matches Wright State have played only once have the lost by more than the handicap they’ve received for this match.  

Conversely, Valpo’s recent success rate at clearing their handicap isn’t nearly as impressive, having failed to clear their number in 9 of their last 19 encounters.

There’s no doubt Wright State will be giving themselves a huge chance to claim their first championship in 5 seasons having accounted for the reigning Horizon Champs Detroit in the Semi. Despite committing 6 more turnovers the Raiders still won largely thanks to the recently awarded Horizon Coach of the Year Billy Donlon conjuring a game plan which kept Detroit to just 54 points while restricting star player Ray McCallum to just 5.  

Take the points on Wright State in this one.

Harvin to Seattle- A Game Changing Trade

When it’s confirmed tomorrow that Minnesota’s Percy Harvin will be traded to Seattle for a first round pick then it’s doubtful a more significant trade will be executed this off season or one which will have more impact on a developing Super Bowl picture.

For both clubs this trade seems to me an eminently sensible one.

The Seahawks are coming off one of their best, most exciting seasons in franchise history largely on the back of impressive rookie Russel Wilson’s shoulders, but equally curtsey of a consistently solid running game and a young defensive unit who has the potential to be the game’s best.

All the Seahawks were lacking was an above average wide receiver to compliment their offensive schemes. In Harvin, they’ve landed the ideal man.

Despite the Seahawks going 11-5 and falling agonisingly short from appearing in the NFC conference game their best performing wide out was Sidney Rice who managed a relatively pedestrian 748 yards on a paltry 50 catches.

In Harvin, they not only land one of the most dynamic wide-outs  in the league but one who at just 24 promises to deliver plenty for Seattle over the coming years and a player who’s never managed less than 60 catches in any of his four seasons as a pro.

In addition, Harvin won’t be a stranger in Seattle having worked in Minnesota under present Seahawk Offensive Coordinator Darrel Bevell, while Harvin was also a teammate of Rice in Minnesota when they almost made a Super Bowl run in his rookie season.

A first round pick himself, Harvin caught almost as many yards as Seattle’s best wide-out this season despite playing just nine games. Since arriving in Minnesota, Harvin has also operated as a highly effective kick returner which Seattle might also turn to in times of need.

As for the Vikings, they’ll be disappointed to lose their second most productive player yet they should be commended for appropriately evaluating their roster and not getting too carried away with a 10-6 record which improbably propelled them to the playoffs.

The post-season did however highlight just how far off the Vikings were from the contenders trailing by more than three touchdowns for the bulk of their wildcard encounter against Green Bay.  

The Harvin trade sends another high pick into the mix while also taking Harvin’s contract off the books. So often clubs over evaluate a playoff appearance, overpay their performers and trade away picks. Yet the reality is the Vikings went 3-13 the season before and were 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less this campaign indicating their 13-3 record might have been a little misleading.

This trade provides them plenty of flexibility while giving them some breathing space to reload into a genuine, Seattle-like contender rather than a flash in the pan. 

Massachusetts-Butler Line

This line has me stumped. Up until a week ago Butler was universally ranked a top 25 team in the nation and in contention to land the A10 Regular Season Conference title. At the back end of January the Bulldogs were ranked 9^th.

However a home loss to Saint Louis and a blow out in Richmond against VCU put pay to both the title and their ranking.

Yet a week surely doesn’t represent the quality of a team, yet in a college sports world obsessed with recency Butler have become yesterday’s news and will start 2 point underdogs when they visit Massachusetts. They should be 3-4 point favourites.

By no stretch of the imagination does Massachusetts represent a powerhouse outfit. They haven’t participated in the National Tournament in 14 years while their body of work this year would indicate that’s not about to change.

In Butler’s high profiled defeats last week they met two of the nations fiercest and locked in defences. In Massachusetts they’ll be taking on the countries’ 295^th ranked unit who has been shipping on average 72 points per game.

I’m not so comfortable with the concept of ‘must win’ games though this one looms as pretty damn important one for Butler who in most measures is a far better team than the Minuteman.

A win here would get their campaign back on track and a potential first round bye for the A-10 tournament. Needless to say a loss would spark some pretty serious discussion about what’s going on with Brad Stevens’ team.

Butler should not be underdogs in this game. 

Don't take your eyes off Milwaukee

As the NBA trade deadline ground to its uneventful thud a couple of weeks ago, the only team conducting any serious business was Milwaukee.

In a deal which sent a couple of former mid-first picks to Orlando, Milwaukee landed the biggest fish of the deadline in J.J Redick.

The trade worked as a companion piece to a deal the Bucks executed 12 months earlier when they landed former Warrior Monta Ellis in exchange for the often injured, previous number one pick Andrew Bogut while also freeing themselves form Stephen Jackson’s erroneous contract.

Indeed General Manager John Hammond has been a busy man since taking the job five years ago with his tireless and imaginative work recently earning him a three year contract extension of his own.

Milwaukee isn’t the easiest place to do business owing to hideous winter weather which works against them when pursuing free agents. In addition, the Bucks franchise isn’t exactly printing money meaning that when they do spend the big dollars their assets really need to bear fruit. Collective attendance to Bucks home games for instance ranks fourth last among all teams.

In spite of the obstacles the Bucks face they should be admired for refusing to accept their lot in life, choosing a course of creativity and ingenuity while working to take advantage of any edge they can get.

As admirable as the Bucks' moves have been, particularly over the last couple of seasons, these final two months of the season loom large and will potentially act as a referendum of sorts upon Hammond’s moves over the last couple of seasons.

The worst case scenario for the Bucks is they fall entirely off the rails and miss the playoffs. The next worst prospect would see them ‘win’ the 8th seed which would immediately pit them against Miami who you’d figure would gobble them up in one mouthful. Either of those scenarios would be compounded by their vulnerable roster composition which could see their entire back court leave in one foul swoop owing to the nature of Ellis, Redick’s and Brandon Jennings’ contracts.

I’m however more buoyant where the Bucks are concerned figuring they could build on their current four game streak, avoid the 8th seed and potentially plot a path would could see them by-pass Miami until the Eastern conference Finals.

Yes, I understand that’s a big stretch for a team just two games above .500, yet indications would suggest that run isn’t entirely beyond the realm of possibility.

The Bucks are playing a level of basketball few in the East are presently performing to, while the early integration of Redick into the line-up has proven flawless.

The Bucks offense has extended to a level whereby it’s now ranked third in the East where points per game is concerned having topped 100 in 13 of their past 19 matches. In addition their playing at a pace which ranks them among the league’s quickest.

Milwaukee’s achilles heel is without doubt a leaky defence which needs to be rectified if they’re to make any noise whatsoever come playoff time. With the exception of Larry Sanders’ excellent interior defence the Bucks don’t inspire much confidence when they don’t have the ball, leaking a gaudy 108 points per 100 possessions when Sanders rests.

The Bucks aren’t usually the most exotic topic in the NBA world however they ought to be. They’re just 3 games off a top four seed and are working as the perfect embodiment of a team performing above their limitations and external expectations. They could make for one hell of a big story over the coming months.

Texas-Baylor Line

In any other season this all Texas, Big 12 match up would have some major import. But not in this one.

Texas is dealing with their worst season in 20 years while Baylor has perhaps fallen further than any of the teams that made some noise last season.

While Texas’ fall wasn’t entirely surprising Baylor won 30 games last campaign and made the NCAA’s Elite Eight at tournament time. They’ve won just 17 this campaign and figure to struggle mightily to gain a tournament entry this year.

When I first evaluated this game I pencilled in Texas as slight favourites. Say by a couple of points. They’ve won 4 of their last 6 at home while Baylor has lost 4 of their last 6 when travelling. The line instead has Baylor as 2-3 point favourites, meaning there’s an at least 5 point swing on my reckoning- probably reason enough to pen these words.

Most importantly Texas will have the services of their star player and elite point guard Myck Kabongo at their disposal. In what may well be Rick Barnes’ last game in Austin as coach he’ll surely have cause to wonder just what the Longhorn’s season could have amounted to had the Canadian and former five star high school prospect been available all season.

Kabongo has played in Texas’ last 6 matches where they’ve gone 3-3 losing to three teams who’ve all had their tickets punched for the tournament. Kabongo is averaging 17 points and five assists per game while Texas is already running 25% of its offence thorough him.

Baylor’s season has fallen into an enormous hole in recent times. They’ve lost 7 of their last 10 and I just can’t see how they’ve been installed as favourites for this one. Texas at line or straight up would both make good options.

The future looks bright for Memphis

I was in the minority when evaluating the Memphis Grizzlies going into the season. I figured that their lack of scoring depth, particularly on the perimeter would plague them so much so that they’d perhaps even miss the playoffs. They of course won’t.

I once again found myself in the minority by thinking the best thing Memphis did this season, at least insofar as solidifying future campaigns while still making them relevant this season, was trading away Rudy Gay.

When the Grizzlies shipped Gay to the Raptors those that opposed the move reasoned that in the process Memphis also gave away their only shot at success this season. I was in the camp that saw the move as one the savviest of the season; one that extricated themselves from paying a not one time All Star (albeit an excellent contributor) $19 million per season while also bringing in Tayshaun Prince, a player these days a notch or two below Gay, yet on a much more workable salary.

While I may have got my opening evaluation of Memphis wrong regarding their playoff credentials I won’t be giving ground on the issue of trading Gay.

The Grizzlies are currently on an eight game tear, albeit against gentle opposition. In that span their defence has returned to a league best ranking which was for a while stripped away by Indiana. They look to have also shored up a top 5 seed in the West which will be crucial in avoiding the big boys in first round.

Critics of the Gay trade will point to raw scoring numbers and suggest that Gay continues to be a significantly better performer, yet most measures suggest that moving Prince into the line up has lost Memphis very little while in fact actually benefitting them sharply in certain situations.

For instance Memphis actually scores more with Prince on the court as opposed to Gay while at this stage the strongest indication of Prince’s value lies in defence. Memphis concedes just 92 points per 100 possessions with Prince on the court while that numbers degenerates to almost 101 when he rests.

Understandably the sample size isn’t enormous while most of the success Memphis is enjoying of late hasn’t exactly been at the expense of too many decent outfits. Yet if nothing else Memphis doesn’t seem to have lost too much from their high profiled move.

Contrary to fears Memphis come play-off time will be pretty much where they would have been with Gay while they’re receiving good output from some of the other cogs in the trade. Former Gonzaga star and first round pick Austin Daye has contributed career best numbers over his first few games in Tennessee while Ed Davis promises plenty.

Most importantly however, Memphis can approach the next free agency period unburdened by the Gay contract on their books and go about adequately addressing some of the imbalances of the roster while remaining one of the best teams in the league.

The future is bright in Memphis. I wouldn’t have felt comfortable writing those words four months ago. 

Clemson-North Carolina Line

No one is going to suggest this season will jump off the page in the annals of the prestigious North Carolina basketball program, however there are signs the Tar Heels are hitting their straps late and just in time for a post season charge.

Clemson on the other hand are ranked 8 of 12 among ACC teams, have lost 7 of their last 10 overall and have fallen to 96 in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings (North Carolina are 31). They’ve little to play for as their season grinds to a familiar end.

North Carolina haven’t been ranked in the nation’s top 25 since prior to Christmas which has probably worked to the advantage of this always highly scrutinised school. They had their most convincing win of the season last weekend against North Carolina State, having accounted for conference foe Virginia the week before.

I expected this line to be around the 7-8 mark. Instead the 3 point handicap North Carolina has been slapped with should be comfortably accounted for.

The Tar Heels still have plenty to prove to both themselves and the rest of the college basketball world in the lead up to tournament play and a slip up down the road to Clemson won't go down well.